摘要
根据南水北调中线工程调水量相关风险因素流动性、不确定性和模糊性的特点,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)建立了包括水源区供水量、工程系统风险与受水区需水量等3个单元及相关指标的风险因素层次分析模型,有效地识别并评估了影响南水北调中线工程调水量的风险因素,结果表明:影响调水量主要风险因素为水源区降水量,其权重为0.193。对风险分析结果评价后,提出应对中线工程调水量风险的措施,旨在为建立调水工程调水量风险管理模型提供参考。
According to South-to-North water diversion project risk factors associated with liquidity, uncertainty and fuzzy characteristics, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process( FAHP) including the establishment of the water source area of water supply, engineering system risk and by water district water requirement of the three units and related indicators of risk factors analytic hierarchy model, effectively identify and assess the risk factors for affecting water rate of South to North Water Diversion Middle Route Project, results show that: effects of water diversion of the main risk factors for water precipitation in the area, its weight was 0. 193. After the evaluation of the risk analysis results, the measures to deal with the water quantity risk of the middle line project are put forward in order to provide a reference for the establishment of the risk management model of water diversion project.
出处
《人民珠江》
2016年第9期9-12,共4页
Pearl River
基金
河南省基础与前沿技术研究项目(122300410029)
河南省教育厅青年骨干教师资助项目(2013GGJS-086)
关键词
南水北调中线
模糊层次分析法
风险识别
风险评价
应对措施
Middle Route of the South-to-north Water Diversion Project
fuzzy analytical hierarchy process
risk identification
risk assessment
Measures
