摘要
为了给洪泽湖及整个淮河下游地区的防汛抗旱决策提供技术支持,基于API模型和三水源新安江模型,采用各区分单元、入湖分单元分区间的方法,考虑水利工程以及大洪水期蓄滞洪区的应用情况,进行降雨径流预报与洪水过程研究。选取洪泽湖以上2000-2018年实测数据,对蚌埠控制区、蚌埠以下淮北控制区、蚌埠以下淮南控制区进行场次洪水模拟;基于水量平衡法,以反推入湖流量作为实测入流,各区采用马斯京根法预报洪水,构建入湖洪水预报方案。结果表明:各区两种模型模拟效果比较接近,均取得较好的预报精度,且对于流域内大洪水的模拟效果更理想。在涨洪段,分单元分区间的API模型和新安江模型在大洪水期均能有效的预报入湖洪水,模拟精度相当;在退水段且预报时段较长时,分单元分区间的新安江模型模拟精度高于API模型,并且模拟的洪水过程与反推入流过程更接近。
In order to provide technical support for flood control and drought relief decision-making in the Hongze Lake and the the lower reaches of Huaihe River,a simulation model is needed.The API model and Xin′anjiang model by a unit-block methoddividing units for sub-catchments and unit-block for lake-inflow were used in this study.The rainfall runoff and flood hydrograph were produce based on the current situation of hydro-projects and flood retarding areas in the river basin.The mode parameters were calibrated with observation from 2000 to 2018 at sub-catchments of Bengbu,the north and south areas of the Huaihe River basin above Hongze Lake.Lake-inflow which was calculated by water balance method was regarded as the measured inflow into the Hongze Lake.The Muskingum method was used in flood confluence process of sub-catchments,and flood forecasting model into Lake was built.The results showed that the two models performed well for sub-catchments in terms of rainfall-runoff simulation,especially for flood events.At rising limb,the prediction results of both models were of high accuracy.At falling limb and a long forecast periods,the prediction accuracy of the Xin′anjiang model was higher than that of the API model,and the simulated flood process was closer to the reversed deduction of lake-inflow.
作者
马亚楠
李致家
刘墨阳
徐杰
童冰星
MA Yanan;LI Zhijia;LIU Moyang;XU Jie;TONG Bingxing(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing210098,China)
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第4期19-26,36,共9页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402705)
国家自然科学基金(51679061
41130639)~~
关键词
分单元分区间
新安江模型
API模型
入湖洪水模拟
反推入湖流量
淮河流域
unit-block
Xin′anjiang model
API model
lake-inflow flood simulation
reverse deduction of lake-inflow
Huaihe River basin
作者简介
马亚楠(1994-),女,陕西渭南人,主要从事流域水文过程模拟方面研究,E-mail:mayanan9506@163.com;通讯作者:李致家(1962-),男,山西运城人,教授,主要从事水文模型与水文预报方面研究,E-mail:zjli@hhu.edu.cn
