摘要
由于桥梁在运营过程中,桥梁各项指标会呈逐年下降趋势,需要通过某种方法研究桥梁技术状况及变化规律,并确定合理时机对桥梁进行预防性养护,使桥梁在寿命期内能安全和合理使用。基于清远某座桥梁2008年-2017年桥梁技术状况的历史数据,将灰色预测模型和马尔可夫链结合,构建了桥梁技术状况预测模型,并给出桥梁技术状况预测公式。分析结果表明,灰色马尔可夫链对于桥梁的技术状况评分拟合度较马尔可夫预测模型和灰色预测模型精度要高,预测效果更好。通过文章所建立的预测模型,分析得出以桥梁技术状况评分85分作为桥梁预防性养护时机是合理、经济的,该研究结果可为今后的桥梁管养决策提供依据。
In the process of operation,the indexes of the bridge will decrease year by year,so it is necessary to study the changing rules of the bridge’s technical conditions through some methods and to determine a reasonable time to carry out preventive maintenance on the bridge,so that the bridge can be used safely and reasonably in the life span.Based on the historical data of technical conditions of the bridge in Qing Yuan from 2008 to 2017,a prediction of bridge technical conditions model was built by combining the gray prediction model and markov chain,and the prediction formula of bridge technical conditions was given.The result of example analysis shows that the fitting degree of grey markov chain to the technical condition score of bridge is higher than that of markov prediction model and grey prediction model,and the prediction effect is better.According to the prediction model established in this paper,it is reasonable and economical to take 85 points of bridge technical conditions score as the opportunity of bridge preventive maintenance,and the research results can provide a basis for future decision making of bridge maintenance personnel.
作者
侯伟涛
王楚达
HOU Wei-tao;WANG Chu-da
出处
《内蒙古公路与运输》
2019年第5期50-53,共4页
Highways & Transportation in Inner Mongolia
关键词
预防性养护
灰色理论
马尔可夫链
预测模型
Preventive maintenance
Grey Theory
Markov Chain
Prediction Model
作者简介
侯伟涛(1991-),男,山东菏泽人,工程硕士,研究方向:高速公路养护与管理。
