摘要
笔者通过构建可变参数的状态空间模型,采用2001年~2013年的月度数据,对影响国际有色金属价格的"中国需求"进行了分解,系统考察了国际有色金属价格与主要"中国需求"因素、工业总产值、进口总额及货币供应量之间的动态关系,结果显示:"中国需求"对国际有色金属价格的动态影响轨迹在2009年5月发生结构性变化;从2009年5月开始,"中国需求"对国际有色金属价格的影响渐趋稳定,预示着我国新一轮有色金属需求开始由库兹涅茨曲线上升期转入稳定期;工业总产值、进口总额对国际有色金属价格的影响系数基本为正。而由于投机性存货的作用,与预期相反,货币供应量与国际有色金属价格总体呈现负向关联。
This paper makes an empirical research on main 'Chinese demand'to influencing international non-ferrous metal prices,and analyzes the dynamic relationship among gross industrial output value,total imports value,money supply and international non-ferrous metal prices by constructing a State Space Model of variable parameter with monthly data from 2001 to 2013. The result shows that: 'Chinese demand'on the dynamic impact of international non-ferrous metal prices trajectories have changed dramatically in May2009. The influence of'Chinese demand'on international non-ferrous metal prices became stable since May 2009,which reflects the trend that China's non-ferrous metals demand is gradually changing from rising period into stable period of Kuznets curve. Besides,the influence coefficients of gross industrial output value and total imports value to international non-ferrous metal prices are almost as positive,and as a result of the action of speculative inventory,contrary to expectations,the money supply has a significant negative relationship with the international non-ferrous metal prices overall.
出处
《经济经纬》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第6期65-70,共6页
Economic Survey
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD169)
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(13YJAZH149)
关键词
中国需求
有色金属价格
状态空间模型
Chinese Demand
Non-Ferrous Metal Prices
State Space Model
