摘要
利用国家海洋环境预报中心基于SWAN模式和NCEP预报风场模拟的全球海浪预报场,结合Jason-2卫星高度计和NDBC浮标资料对全球海浪场进行了自2013年7月到2014年6月为期1 a的统计检验。结果表明:预报波高与实测值吻合较好,24 h、48 h、72 h预报的均方根误差均小于0.6 m,偏差绝对值均小于0.1 m,相关系数均大于0.91。有效波高的预报精度随预报时效的增加而降低,预报误差在48 h内变化不大,而在48 h后明显增大。有效波高的预报偏差存在地域性差别,全球西风带和热带地区的偏差较大,而赤道无风带和副热带高压控制地区的偏差较小。
An operational wave forecast system was established by National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC) based on the third-generation wave model SWAN and global wind fields of NCEP from July2013 to June 2014. A detailed study of the performance against the altimeter satellite data provided by Janson-2satellite and buoy data from the National Data Buoy Center(NDBC) is presented. Results suggest that the forecasted significant wave heights(SWH) are in good agreement with the observed value along with a high correlation coefficient(>0.91) and a low bias(<0.1 m) as well as the RMS error(<0.6 m) concluded in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h. The accuracy of forecast wave heights decrease as the forecasting time increases, and the prediction error grows slightly within 48 h, but increase rapidly after 48 h. Besides, the prediction errors of SWH exist regional differences. The prediction errors in the westerlies and tropical regions are bigger, while the regions of doldrums and subtropical high-pressure belt are smaller.
出处
《海洋预报》
2015年第6期1-9,共9页
Marine Forecasts
基金
国家海洋局海洋公益性行业科研专项(201305032)
