摘要
正确认识和处理长期护理保险政策与生育意愿的关系,对于实现社会保障政策与人口政策的有效协同和促进人口高质量发展具有重要意义。基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)面板数据,运用双重差分倾向得分匹配(PSM-DID)等方法考察长期护理保险对生育意愿的影响。结果表明:长期护理保险显著降低了居民的生育意愿,这一结论在一系列稳健性检验下依然成立。同时,长期护理保险对35岁及以下、高收入等类别女性生育意愿的抑制作用更强。进一步的机制分析表明,养儿防老观念的弱化、女性劳动参与的增加等因素是长期护理保险挤出生育意愿的重要机制。因此,要加强长期护理保险对家庭成员提供非正式照护的支持,健全保护女性生育权利和降低家庭生育成本的配套政策。
Correctly understanding and addressing the relationship between long-term care insurance(LTCI)policies and fertility intentions is of great significance for achieving effective synergy between social security policies and population policies,as well as promoting high-quality population development.Based on the panel data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),methods such as PSM-DID are employed to examine the impact of LTCI on fertility intentions.The results indicate that LTCI policies significantly reduce residents’fertility intentions,and this conclusion remains valid across a series of robustness tests.Additionally,the inhibitory effect of LTCI on fertility intentions is more pronounced among women aged 35 and below,individuals with higher incomes,and rural residents.Further mechanism analysis reveals that the weakening of traditional fertility concepts,increased female labor force participation,and upgrading of family consumption structures are the key channels through which LTCI crowds out fertility intentions.Accordingly,it is necessary to strengthen LTCI’s support for informal care within families,improve supporting policies to protect women’s reproductive rights,and reduce families’reproductive costs.
作者
杨红燕
李德权
叶菁
YANG Hongyan;LI Dequan;YE Jing(Center for Social Security Studies,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Political Science and Public Administration,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《东北大学学报(社会科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第5期85-94,共10页
Journal of Northeastern University(Social Science)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72274145)
教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(22YJA630101)
教育部人文社科重点研究基地项目(24JDZS01)。
关键词
长期护理保险
生育意愿
照护支持
生育成本
long-term care insurance
fertility intention
care support
reproductive costs
作者简介
杨红燕,武汉大学教授,博士生导师;李德权,武汉大学博士研究生;叶菁,武汉大学博士后研究人员。
