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构建危化品供应链安全数字化监管平台的博弈及仿真分析

Game and simulation-based analysis of a digital regulatoryplatform for hazardous chemical supply chain safety
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摘要 为构建高效协同的危化品供应链数字化监管体系,实现安全风险的早期研判、预警、发现和处置,首先界定危化品供应链数字化监管平台及供应链中生产企业、物流企业等供应链利益主体的概念特征。其次,分析在供应链中生产企业、物流企业接入危化品供应链数字化监管平台的三方策略博弈,探析不同情景下主体的演化稳定策略。最后,通过MATLAB软件完成数值仿真分析,分析相关参数对三大利益相关者策略选择的影响,揭示不同演化阶段,政府监管部门、危化品生产企业与物流企业如何互动构建统一的供应链数字化监管平台。结果表明,政府监管部门在初期扮演着引领者的角色,其监管策略选择对整体系统走向具有决定性影响。采取积极奖励与处罚策略、合理降低企业接入数字化监管成本,能够激励危化品生产企业和物流企业主动参与到数字化监管平台中来,提升安全水平。 To establish a more efficient and collaborative digital regulatory system for the hazardous chemicals supply chain,this paper aims to enhance early research,early warning,detection,and mitigation of safety risks.It first defines the conceptual characteristics of the digital supervision platform for the hazardous chemicals supply chain,as well as the roles of key stakeholders,such as production and logistics enterprises,within the supply chain.Secondly,the paper analyzes a tripartite strategy game involving production and logistics enterprises participating in the digital supervision of the hazardous chemical supply chain.It explores the evolutionary stabilization strategies of safety supervision entities under various scenarios.Finally,a numerical simulation analysis was conducted using MATLAB software to evaluate the influence of relevant parameters on the strategy selection of the three stakeholders.This analysis reveals how government regulators,hazardous chemical production enterprises,and logistics companies can collaboratively construct a unified digital supervision platform for the supply chain through strategies employed at different stages of evolution.The results indicate that in the tripartite strategy selection game of digital regulation within the hazardous chemical supply chain,the system's evolution is highly sensitive to multiple factors.In the initial stage,the government regulator assumes a leadership role,with its choice of regulatory strategy significantly influencing the overall direction of the system.By implementing positive incentives and penalties while reasonably reducing the costs associated with digital supervision,the regulator can encourage hazardous chemical manufacturers and logistics companies to actively engage in digital oversight.This approach not only fosters participation but also effectively promotes the development of the entire supply chain towards greener and safer practices.This research demonstrates how government regulators,hazardous chemicals manufacturers,and logistics companies can achieve optimal management decisions through strategic adjustments at various evolutionary stages.It offers valuable insights for promoting collaborative regulation among multiple stakeholders and contributes to the development of a more efficient and cooperative digital regulatory system for the hazardous chemicals supply chain.
作者 张喜才 李珊 ZHANG Xicai;LI Shan(Business School,Beijing Wuzi University,Beijing 101149,China)
出处 《安全与环境学报》 北大核心 2025年第10期3923-3933,共11页 Journal of Safety and Environment
关键词 公共安全 危化品 供应链 数字化监管平台 博弈 public safety hazardous chemicals supply chain digital regulatory platform game
作者简介 张喜才,教授,博士,从事危化品物流与供应链研究,zhangxicai29@163.com。
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