摘要
利用国家卫健委所公开的2021年12月12日至2022年12月12日的COVID-19全国整体感染人数以及无症状感染人数数据,讨论了COVID-19全国无症状感染人数占整体感染人数比例的演变趋势。采用均值多变点模型及二元分割法,引入Ratio检验统计量并结合Block Bootstrap抽样方法,实证性的统计分析了观测数据的波动规律。研究结果表明:COVID-19全国无症状感染人数占整体感染人数比例总体呈显著上升趋势,具有高波动性和高跳跃性的特征。根据多变点位置估计方法,将数据分为5个阶段。在此基础上,探索不同阶段下数据变化与受感染毒株类型、气温、地区政策等因素之间的机理。
Based on the data released by the National Health Commission on the total number of COVID-19 patients and the number of asymptomatic patients from December 12,2021 to December 12,2022,this paper discusses the evolving trend of the proportion of asymptomatic patients in the total number of COVID-19 patients.Using the mean multiple point model and binary segmentation method,the Ratio test statistic is introduced and the Block Bootstrap method is used to empirically analyze thefluctuation law of the observed data.The results showed that the proportion of asymptomatic infections in the total number of COVID-19 in-fections showed a significant upward trend,with high volatility and high jump characteristics.According to the multiple change point location estimation method,the data is divided intofive stages.On this basis,the mechanism between the data changes and the types of infected strains,temperature,regional policies and other factors at different stages was explored.
作者
孙治国
金浩
苏梦琳
SUN Zhiguo;JIN Hao;SU Menglin(School of Science,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710600;School of Computer Science and Technology,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710600)
出处
《工程数学学报》
北大核心
2025年第5期983-990,共8页
Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics
基金
国家自然科学基金(71473194)
陕西省科技厅自然科学基金(2020JM513).
作者简介
孙治国(1997-),男,硕士生.研究方向:时间序列分析;通讯作者:金浩,E-mail:jinhao2004@126.com。
