摘要
宁蒙河段沙量变化趋势和未来沙量预估对宁蒙河段治理具有重要意义。分析总结了黄河宁蒙河段干支流沙量变化特性,剖析了宁蒙河段沙量减少的原因。1960—2020年宁蒙河段来沙量变化的特征包括:来沙量减少,干流沙量减少更为明显;干支流来沙量比例关系发生变化,支流沙量占比增加;干支流来沙量变化各具有明显时间节点,近期减少时间基本同步;近期干支流来沙量变化基本符合对数正态分布等。影响来沙量变化的主要驱动因素包括干流水库拦蓄、支流水利水土保持及降雨变化等。考虑降雨总体上长期稳定且呈周期性变化以及库坝拦沙量随着时间发展不断减少等因素,以2000—2020年实际产沙条件为基础,分析库坝拦沙能力降低和水土保持措施建设新增减沙。研究认为未来宁蒙河段干流下河沿站年均来沙量和区间支流年均来沙量均较近期水平有一定幅度增加。
Understanding the trend of sediment load variation and future projections in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River is crucial for its management.This paper analyzed and summarized the characteristics of sediment load changes in the main stream and tributaries of this reach,and identified the causes for the sediment reduction.The characteristics of the sediment load variation in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach(1960-2020)included:a decrease in sediment inflow,with a more pronounced reduction in the mainstem;altered sediment contribution ratio between mainstem and tributaries,showing increased proportional input from tributaries;distinct temporal inflection points in sediment changes for both mainstem and tributaries,with recent reduction phases being largely synchronous and;recent sediment load variations approximately follow a lognormal distribution.The main driving factors influencing these changes of sediment inflow included the detention of the main stream reservoir,water and soil conservation measures in the tributaries,and the variation of rainfall.Considering long-term rainfall stability with cyclical fluctuations and diminishing reservoir sediment retention capacity over time,this study based its anal-ysis on actual sediment yield conditions during 2000-2020,by evaluating reduced sediment interception capacity and newly implemented conservation measures,it is projected that the annual sediment load at Xiaheyan Station on the mainstem,and annual sediment input from in-terval tributaries will both increase moderately compared to recent levels.
作者
王煜
鲁俊
王小鹏
陈翠霞
张冬青
WANG Yu;LU Jun;WANG Xiaopeng;CHEN Cuixia;ZHANG Dongqing(Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin,Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
北大核心
2025年第10期12-18,共7页
Yellow River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206703)
中原学者获资助项目(254000510001)。
关键词
宁蒙河段
沙量
变化趋势
黄河
Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach
sediment load
variation trend
Yellow River
作者简介
王煜(1968-),男,河南开封人,正高级工程师,博士,主要从事水利规划、工程前期技术管理和水文水资源研究工作;通信作者:鲁俊(1981-),男,四川资阳人,高级工程师,主要从事水沙研究与规划设计工作,E-mail:393956425@qq.com。
