摘要
运河碰撞事故的发生具有随机性和不确定性,适用于泛化的事故致因概念分析模型,以制定相关的防控措施。通过专家咨询和文本挖掘提出事故致因属性集,运用形式概念分析构建运河船舶碰撞事故的致因形式背景,进而构建致因概念格。以京杭运河苏州城区段为特征水域,引入时空特征聚类的方法,得到2018—2022年332起碰撞事故案例的时空分布,根据碰撞事故黑点选取12起典型碰撞事故作为对象集进行模型应用。皮尔逊检验方法验证了形式概念分析在碰撞事故致因分析中的可靠性。结果表明:运河船舶碰撞事故的强关联致因是有效视距不足、早晚饭时段瞭望疏忽和航段通航秩序复杂等。
The occurrence of canal collision accidents is random and uncertain,which is suitable for the generalized conceptual analysis model of accident causes to formulate relevant prevention and control measures.Through expert consultation and text mining,the accident cause attribute set is proposed,and the formal concept analysis is used to construct the cause formal context of the canal ship collision accident,and then the cause concept lattice is constructed.Taking the Suzhou urban section of the Grand Canal as the characteristic water area,the spatial-temporal feature clustering method is introduced to obtain the spatial-temporal distribution of 332 collision accident cases from 2018 to 2022.According to the black spots of collision accidents,12 typical collision accidents are selected as the object set for model application.The Pearson test method verifies the reliability of formal concept analysis in the cause analysis of collision accidents.The results show that the strong correlation causes of ship collision accidents in the canal are insufficient effective sight distance,negligence in the morning and evening meals,and complex navigation order in the navigation section.
作者
谭志荣
丁熙平
王银波
马杰
张泽虎
龚凯军
TAN Zhirong;DING Xiping;WANG Yinbo;MA Jie;ZHANG Zehu;GONG Kaijun(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China;Suzhou Traffic and Transportation Bureau,Suzhou 215007,China)
出处
《中国航海》
北大核心
2025年第S1期119-125,共7页
Navigation of China
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52271366)
关键词
形式概念分析
时空特征
知识发现
formal concept analysis
spatial-temporal features
knowledge discovery
作者简介
谭志荣(1978-),男,副教授,博士,研究方向为载运工具运用工程与交通系统安全性评价研究。E-mail:1084341511@qq.com;通信作者:丁熙平(2000-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为交通环境与海事安全。E-mail:1915646988@qq.com
