摘要
保持经济发展与大气环境质量改善之间的良好耦合协调性是推进京津冀城市群协同、高质量发展的核心要义之一。本文以京津冀城市群为研究对象,通过构建经济发展与大气环境质量综合评价指标体系,运用熵权法、耦合协调度模型、ESDA空间探索性方法和Tobit回归模型,分析京津冀城市群经济发展与大气环境质量两个系统之间的耦合协调性时空演变规律和影响因素。结果表明:①2014−2023年,京津冀城市群经济发展与大气环境质量之间的耦合协调度从2014年的0.472缓慢升至2020年的0.491,后波动降至0.457;北京市总体一直处于良好协调发展和优质协调发展阶段之间(0.827~0.923),天津市处于初级协调发展和中级协调发展阶段之间(0.517~0.743),其余城市普遍一直处于勉强协调和不同程度的衰退阶段(<0.500)。②空间分布上,基本保持了北京市和天津市耦合协调度相对于周边城市较高的“双核心”格局,环京津周边城市的经济发展与大气环境质量耦合协调性呈逐步提升趋势,南部区域经济发展与大气环境质量耦合协调度仍处于明显的衰退趋势;耦合协调性整体趋向空间集聚不显著态势,空间异质性特征逐渐突出,表现为“南北低、中间高”的特征。③清洁能源消费水平、节能环保治理能力、生态建设能力、技术创新能力、污染物减排绩效能力等是影响京津冀城市群经济发展与大气环境质量的耦合协调度的重要因素,均起到显著的正向促进作用。建议京津冀城市群持续推进能源消费清洁化,优化大气污染联防联控体制机制,因地制宜发展新质生产力,建立废弃物综合循环利用产业体系。
Maintaining the strong coupling and coordination between economic development and the improvement of atmospheric environment quality is essential for promoting the coordinated and high-quality development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.Using the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as a case study,an index system was established for a comprehensive evaluation of both economic development and atmospheric environmental quality.The degree of coupling coordination between the economic development and atmospheric environmental quality of the cluster as well as relevant influencing factors were measured using the entropy weight method,the coupling coordination degree model,and Tobit regression model.The results show that:(1)From 2014 to 2023,the coupling coordination degree between economic development and atmospheric environmental quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration increased slowly from 0.472 in 2014 to 0.491 in 2020,and then decreased to 0.457,indicating a trend of initial increase followed by fluctuations and decline.Beijing was between good and high-quality coordinated development(0.827-0.923),while Tianjin was between primary and intermediate coordinated development(0.517-0.743).However,other cities generally exhibited barely coordinated development,with varying degrees of decline(Below 0.500).(2)In terms of spatial distribution,the“dual core”pattern of relatively high coupling and coordination between Beijing and Tianjin compared to surrounding cities has been basically maintained.The coupling coordination degree between economic development and atmospheric environmental quality in the surrounding cities of Beijing and Tianjin gradually increased,while the coupling coordination degree between economic development and atmospheric environmental quality in the southern region were still in a clear decline trend.The overall trend of coupling coordination was not significant in spatial agglomeration,while the spatial heterogeneity became prominent,with a trend of‘low in the north and south,high in the middle’.(3)The consumption level of clean energy,as well as capabilities in technological innovation,energy conservation and environmental protection,pollutant emission reduction,and ecological conservation were the main factors affecting the degree of coupling coordination between economic development and atmospheric environment quality in the city cluster.All of these factors played a significant positive role.It is suggested that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration should continue to promote clean energy consumption,optimize the joint prevention and control system and mechanism of air pollution,develop new quality productivity according to local conditions,and establish a comprehensive waste recycling system.
作者
刘月
何伟
左强
LIU Yue;HE Wei;ZUO Qiang(China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China;China Development Research Foundation,Beijing 100009,China;Shanxi Institute of Finance,Taiyuan 237016,China)
出处
《环境科学研究》
北大核心
2025年第9期2090-2102,共13页
Research of Environmental Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(No.2017YFC0212500)。
关键词
京津冀城市群
经济发展
大气环境质量
耦合协调性
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration
economic development
atmospheric environmental quality
coupling coordination
作者简介
刘月(2000-),女,山西大同人,980406801@qq.com;何伟(1985-),男,山西大同人,副研究员/高级工程师,博士,主要从事绿色发展与环境管理研究,heweinwnu@126.com。
