摘要
在全球通胀上涨和经济增长乏力背景下重新审视中国面临的输入性通胀,是精准发力、制定有效政策以维持经济稳定的关键议题。文章基于2002-2021年的宏观层面数据,构建MAI-AR-SV模型和SVAR模型考察输入性通胀的宏观经济效应。研究发现:第一,中国通胀在水平上近1/3和波动率上超1/6的部分可由输入性通胀解释,且相较于总体通胀和自身通胀,输入性通胀表现出更强的持久性;第二,正向输入性通胀冲击推高中国总体通胀水平,不利于物价稳定,对投资、外贸和总产出产生负面影响,并导致中国人民银行做出紧缩的货币政策反应;第三,输入性通胀会抬高通胀预期和增加经济政策不确定性,从而对宏观经济产生持久的负面影响。因此,有必要建立应对输入性通胀的长效宏观调控机制。在面对输入性通胀时,货币政策需在调控通胀与刺激经济之间做出恰当权衡,并重视预期与不确定性,减轻输入性通胀的不利影响。
Amid the current global context of rising inflation and sluggish economic growth,it is essential to reexamine the challenges posed by imported inflation in China.With increasingly integrated supply chains and faster crossborder price transmission,external inflationary pressures play an ever more prominent role in shaping domestic macroeconomic dynamics.A clear understanding of this phenomenon can inform more targeted and effective macroeconomic policymaking,thereby contributing to the stability and resilience of China’s economic development.In this context,it is crucial to assess the transmission mechanisms,persistence,and policy implications of imported inflation.Based on macroeconomic data from a broad range of countries and regions over the period 2002 to 2021,the study applies two complementary empirical frameworks:the MAIARSV model and the SVAR model.These approaches enable a comprehensive evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of imported inflation,accounting for structural heterogeneity,timevarying volatility,and crossborder linkages.The results shed light on how global price shocks are transmitted to China through trade,commodity markets,and financial flows.The analysis yields three main findings.First,imported inflation contributes to nearly onethird of China’s overall inflation level and more than onesixth of its volatility.Compared with aggregate and domestic inflation,imported inflation demonstrates stronger persistence,indicating more lasting effects on domestic prices and complicating shortterm stabilization efforts.Second,positive shocks to imported inflation substantially raise China’s general inflation rate,undermining price stability.These shocks also generate negative spillovers across investment,external trade,and total output,often prompting contractionary monetary responses that intensify shortterm tradeoffs.Third,imported inflation raises inflation expectations and increases policy uncertainty,weakening the credibility of policy signals and exerting longterm adverse effects on macroeconomic stability.These findings point to three policy priorities.First,greater emphasis should be placed on distinguishing domestic and external inflation drivers.Identifying the contributions of supply versus demandside factors and separating transitory from persistent elements is vital for designing precise and responsive macroeconomic interventions.Second,monetary policy must balance inflation control with growth objectives.A coordinated use of interest rate instruments,exchange rate policy,and liquidity tools can help mitigate external shocks while preserving domestic momentum.Third,expectation management and uncertainty reduction should be integrated into macroeconomic governance.Enhancing forward guidance,improving policy transparency,and anchoring expectations are crucial for bolstering policy credibility,stabilizing markets,and containing the multifaceted risks posed by imported inflation.
作者
杨艳
易伟
鲁世宇
YANG Yan;YI Wei;LU Shiyu(School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
北大核心
2025年第9期16-31,共16页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“输入型通胀的宏观经济效应研究:通胀风险、价格分化和货币政策分析”(72373107)。
作者简介
杨艳,女,四川资阳人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:宏观经济分析与调控;易伟,男,湖南衡阳人,博士,研究方向:宏观经济学;通讯作者:鲁世宇,男,吉林长春人,研究方向:宏观经济学与政府治理.
