摘要
近年来,中国“一带一路”建设开始延伸至东北亚区域,东北亚迎来了新的发展机遇。文章基于2003—2022年东北亚绿地投资数据,分析了东北亚投资合作网络的演变特征与潜在矛盾。研究发现,东北亚各国投资伙伴分布广泛,中、日、韩、俄形成“四方连通”格局;东北亚区域投资合作网络“核心—边缘”层级分明,中国网络地位突出;中、日、韩呈负向敏感,成为强化区域投资依存关系的核心国,而俄、蒙、朝呈正向敏感,对区域投资依存度较高。上述结论在凸显东北亚区域合作潜力的同时,也揭示了区域投资关系的不对称性和脆弱性。核心国家存在“离心化”倾向和不对称“虹吸效应”,其带来的低效率问题导致区域内资源分配失衡。边缘国家则难以摆脱地缘政治引致的刚性约束。为突破东北亚区域合作“表面繁荣”困境,应积极发挥核心国家牵头作用,破解边缘国家融入壁垒,通过“中日韩+X”模式,以内环助推外环,构建更具韧性的东北亚区域投资网络。
In recent years,China's Belt and Road Initiative has begun to extend into Northeast Asia,bringing new development opportunities to the region.Based on greenfield investment data of Northeast Asia from 2003 to 2022,this paper analyzes the evolutionary characteristics and potential contradictions of the investment cooperation network in Northeast Asia.The paper finds that investment partnerships among Northeast Asian countries are widely distributed,with China,Japan,South Korea,and Russia forming a“quadrilateral connectivity”structure.The investment cooperation network in Northeast Asia exhibits a clear“core-periphery”hierarchy,with China occupying a prominent position.China,Japan,and South Korea show negative sensitivity,acting as the core countries that strengthen regional investment dependence,while Russia,Mongolia,and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea show positive sensitivity,reflecting a high level of regional investment dependence.While the above findings highlight the potential for regional cooperation in Northeast Asia,they also reveal the asymmetry and fragility of regional investment relationships.Core countries exhibit a tendency toward decentralization and asymmetric siphoning effects,leading to inefficiencies that result in imbalanced resource allocation within the region.Peripheral countries struggle to escape the rigid constraints imposed by geopolitical tensions.To break through the dilemma of“superficial prosperity”in Northeast Asian regional cooperation,core countries should actively take a leading role in eliminating barriers to integration for peripheral countries.Through a“China-Japan-South Korea+X”model,the inner circle can drive the outer circle,fostering a more resilient regional investment network in Northeast Asia.
作者
曲如晓
王陆舰
QU Ruxiao;WANG Lujian(Beijing Normal University)
出处
《国际贸易》
北大核心
2025年第8期61-72,共12页
Intertrade
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“产业链网络重构对中国企业创新的影响机理与对策研究”(24AJL014)的阶段性成果。
关键词
东北亚
投资合作网络
核心地位
依存关系
不对称性
Northeast Asia
investment cooperation network
core position
dependence relationship
asymmetry
作者简介
曲如晓,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授、博士生导师;通讯作者:王陆舰,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院博士研究生。电子邮箱:wanglujian96@163.com。
