摘要
目的阐明1990-2021年我国归因于非最佳温度的下呼吸道感染(LRIs)疾病负担状况及其变化趋势,为识别易感人群提供见解。方法通过2021年全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库,分析归因于非最佳温度、低温和高温风险的LRIs死亡率和伤残调整生命年(DALYs)的变化趋势;利用Joinpoint软件分析时间序列趋势变化,探究归因于非最佳温度风险的LRIs标化死亡率和标化DALYs率。结果2021年中国归因于非最佳温度风险的LRIs死亡率和DALYs分别为1.92/10万(比1990年5.76/10万,下降66.80%)和37.99/10万(比1990年398.77/10万,下降90.47%)。男性归因于非最佳温度风险的LRIs疾病负担高于女性,死亡率男女分别为2.86/10万和2.48/10万,DALYs分别为44.90/10万和30.75/10万,<5岁的儿童和≥75岁的老年人LRIs负担显著增加。1990-2021年中国归因于非最佳温度因素的LRIs的标化死亡率和标化DALYs率均呈下降趋势[平均年度变动百分比(AAPC)分别为-5.04%和-7.33%]。结论我国归因于非最佳温度的LRIs疾病负担总体呈下降趋势,男性高于女性,<5岁和≥75岁的人群疾病负担高于其他年龄段。在中国低温风险在非最佳温度影响中扮演着重要作用,为减轻LRIs疾病负担,应早期对男性、中老年和儿童群体施加干预措施,依据外界环境温度的变化做好易感人群的早期防护工作,对降低疾病负担具有重要的公共卫生学意义。
OBJECTIVE To elucidate the burden of lower respiratory tract infections(LRIs)attributable to non-optimal temperature risk and its changing trends in China from 1990 to 2021,and to provide insights for identifying susceptible populations.METHODS The changing trends in mortality and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of LRIs attributed to non-optimal,low and high temperature risks were analyzed through the 2021 global burden of disease(GBD)database.Joinpoint software was used to analyze the trend changes of time series and explore the standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALYs rate of LRIs attributed to non-optimal temperature risk.RESULTS In 2021,LRIs mortality and DALYs rates attributable to non-optimal temperature risk in China were 1.92 per 100,000(down 66.80%from 5.76 per 100,000 in 1990)and 37.99 per 100,000(down 90.47%from 398.77 per 100,000 in 1990),respectively.The burden of LRIs attributed to non-optimal temperature risks was higher in males than that in females,with the mortality rates of 2.86 per 100,000 and 2.48 per 100,000,and DALYs rates of 44.90 per 100,000 and 30.75 per 100,000,respectively.The burden of LRIs increased significantly in children under 5 years old and elderly individuals aged 75 and above.From 1990 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate and the standardized DALYs rate of LRIs attributed to non-optimal temperature factors in China showed a declining trend[average annual percentage change(AAPC):-5.04%and-7.33%,respectively].CONCLUSIONS The overall burden of LRIs attributable to non-optimal temperature in China has generally declined from 1990 to 2021.with higher burden in males than that in females,and higher burden in individuals under 5 years old and those aged 75 and above.In China,low temperature risk plays an important role in the non-optimal temperature effect.To reduce the burden of LRIs disease,early intervention measures should be implemented for males,the middle-aged and elderly people and children,and early protection for susceptible populations should be provided based on changes in external environmental temperature,which are of significant public health importance for reducing disease burden.
作者
柳天宇
周峻云
王清华
李健
LIU Tianyu;ZHOU Junyun;WANG Qinghua;LI Jian(Air Force Hospital of Eastern Theater Command of Chinese People's Liberation Army,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210001,China)
出处
《中华医院感染学杂志》
北大核心
2025年第15期2330-2335,共6页
Chinese Journal of Nosocomiology
关键词
下呼吸道感染
疾病负担
非最佳温度
伤残调整寿命年
Joinpoint回归模型
Lower respiratory tract infections
Burden of disease
Non-optimal temperature
Disability-adjusted life years
Joinpoint regression model
作者简介
柳天宇(1998-),男,硕士,公卫医师,研究方向:慢性病流行病学、医院感染防控等;通讯作者:李健,E-mail:271328088@qq.com。
