摘要
城市建筑垃圾的大量产生造成极大的资源浪费和环境污染,随着城市更新的持续推进,建筑垃圾将不断增多,因此对建筑垃圾产生量的准确预测将有利于建筑垃圾资源化治理,但目前城市建筑垃圾产生量的相关数据及其深入分析相对欠缺阻碍了对建筑垃圾治理的研究。为此,尝试利用建筑面积估算法对2014—2023年北京市建筑垃圾产生量进行估算,并采用多元线性回归模型对建筑垃圾产生量进行预测和分析,发现北京市未来五年的建筑垃圾产生量虽然巨大但将保持在一个相对稳定状态。在分析基础上提出3点建议,以期为北京市建筑垃圾治理及后续研究提供数据支撑和理论依据。
The substantial generation of urban construction waste poses significant challenges in terms of resource depletion and environmental pollution.As urban renewal efforts continue to advance,construction waste volumes are projected to increase steadily.Consequently,accurate prediction of construction waste generation will facilitate enhanced resource utilization and management strategies.However,current research on construction waste management is hindered by a relative scarcity of comprehensive data and in-depth analysis pertaining to urban construction waste generation volumes.To address this gap,a building area-based estimation method to quantify construction waste output in Beijing from 2014 to 2023 is employed.Subsequently,a multiple linear regression model is applied to predict and analyze future waste generation trends.The findings indicate that while construction waste output in Beijing over the next five years will remain substantial,it is expected to stabilize at a relatively consistent level.Based on the analysis,several recommendations are proposed to provide data support and a theoretical foundation for improving construction waste management in Beijing and informing subsequent research.
作者
秦颖
王祯顺
秦光宇
QIN Ying;WANG Zhenshun;QING Guangyu(Engineering Technology Innovation Center for Construction Waste Recycling,Ministry of Housing and Urban‑Rural Developmen,Beijing 100044;School of Urban Economics and Management,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and,Architecture,Beijing 100044)
出处
《北京建筑大学学报》
2025年第4期30-35,共6页
Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(72404023)。
关键词
建筑垃圾
多元线性回归
产生量预测
城市更新
construction waste
multiple linear regression
output prediction
urban renewal
作者简介
第一作者:秦颖(1968-),女,教授,博士,研究方向:环境经济与环境管理。
