摘要
为提升雷暴大风预警信号的有效性,并在准确率与时间提前量之间实现科学平衡,基于2016—2023年上海地区245个自动气象站观测资料及9个区气象台预警信号,采用百分位法与天气学分型方法,对雷暴大风预警信号进行系统评估。结果表明,雷暴大风主要发生在4—8月,7月最为频繁;其日变化特征表现为午后至夜间高发;沿江沿海地区易出现特强雷暴大风;雷暴大风预警信号的集中发布时间较实况峰值提前约1 h。整体有效性评分为14.1分(总分100分),特强雷暴大风的平均得分为28.2分,其中暖式切变型得分最高(49.2分),静止锋切变型最低(12.1分)。副热带高压边缘型及静止锋切变型雷暴大风过程中,西北太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、位置偏西。个例分析显示,东北冷涡影响下的高空冷涡型特强雷暴大风预警得分相对较高,但与其他过程类似,当风力达到12级以上时,预警发布时间往往滞后于实况。副高边缘型雷暴大风影响范围较广,各区预警发布普遍及时,有效性评分整体较高。
To enhance the effectiveness of thunderstorm gale warning signals and achieve a scientific balance between accuracy and lead time,this study systematically evaluates the warning signals based on observation data from 245 automatic weather stations in Shanghai from 2016 to 2023 and warning signals issued by nine district meteorological stations,using the percentile method and synop-tic classification.Results show that thunderstorm gales mainly occur from April to August,with the highest frequency in July;their diur-nal variation is characterized by frequent occurrence from afternoon to nighttime;extremely strong gales are prone to appear in coastal and riverside areas;and the issuance of warning signals generally precedes the peak occurrence of gales by about 1 hour.The overall ef-fectiveness score is 14.1 points(out of 100),and the average score for extremely strong thunderstorm gales is 28.2 points,with the warm shear type scoring the highest(49.2 points)and the stationary front shear type the lowest(12.1 points).During subtropical high-edge and stationary front shear processes,the western Pacific subtropical high tends to be stronger and displaced westward.Case studies in-dicate that extremely strong thunderstorm gales associated with the upper-level cold vortex under the influence of the northeast cold vor-tex achieve relatively higher scores.However,similar to other processes,when the wind force reaches beaufort scale force 12 or above,warnings are often issued later than the actual occurrence.Subtropical high-edge gales have a relatively wide impact range,and warn-ings are generally issued in a timely manner across districts,resulting in overall higher effectiveness scores.
作者
周伟东
戴建华
管理
傅洁
陈浩
王蕊
吕青
ZHOU Weidong;DAI Jianhua;GUAN Li;FU Jie;CHEN Hao;WANG Rui;LYU Qing(Shanghai Meteorological Service Center,Shanghai 200030,China;Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory,Shanghai 200030,China)
出处
《干旱气象》
2025年第4期637-645,共9页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2142214)
华东区域气象科技创新基金项目(QYHZ202109)共同资助。
关键词
特强雷暴大风
强对流
预警信号
有效性评估
上海
extremely strong thunderstorm gales
strong convection
warning signals
effective evaluation
Shanghai
作者简介
周伟东(1971-),男,上海金山人,正高级工程师,主要从事气候统计和应用气象研究。E-mail:wd_zhou@sohu.com。
