摘要
利用湖蟹养殖小气候自动气象站2022—2024年分层水温及同步气象资料,分析不同天气时各层水温变化特征,及其与气象因子的相关性,并采用逐步回归法,构建不同天气条件下分层水温预报模型。结果表明,各层水温均有明显的变化特征,并且与气温变化趋势一致;水温滞后于气温,变幅小于气温;水温与气温呈显著正相关;利用当日及1~3d前平均气温、最高气温、最低气温构建晴到多云、多云到阴及阴雨天气状况下各层水温预报模型,回代检验和预测检验的绝对误差0.8~1.4℃,拟合效果较好,可用于蟹塘水温预测。
Stratified water temperature data and concurrent meteorological data were collected by an automatic meteorological station specific for a lake crab farming microclimate from 2022 to 2024,water temperature variation characteristics at different depths under diverse weather conditions were analyzed,along with their correlations with meteorological factors.Additionally,a stepwise regression approach was adopted to develop predictive models for stratified water temperature under various weather conditions.Results revealed that significant variation characteristics in water temperature at each depth were demonstrated,aligning with trend in air temperature.Water temperature lagged behind air temperature,with smaller fluctuations than air temperature.A significant positive correlation between water temperature and air temperature was observed.Water temperature predictive models for sunny to cloudy,cloudy to overcast,and overcast and rainy weather conditions were constructed using average temperature,maximum temperature,and minimum temperature for current day and previous 1 to 3 d.Models were tested using retrospective validation and predictive assessment,with absolute errors ranging from 0.8 to 1.4℃,showed robust fitting and could be used to predict water temperature in crab ponds.
作者
盛琼
陈中赟
奚雷
陈建萍
SHENG Qiong;CHEN Zhongyun;XI Lei;CHEN Jianping(Huzhou Meteorological Administration,Huzhou Zhejiang 313000,China)
出处
《农业工程》
2025年第8期94-100,共7页
AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING
基金
湖州市科技计划项目(2023GZ61)。
关键词
湖蟹
气象因子
水温
气温
逐步回归法
lake crab
meteorological factor
water temperature
air temperature
stepwise regression approach
作者简介
盛琼,高级工程师,主要从事农业气象与服务工作,E-mail:465044609@qq.com。
