摘要
为进一步了解烟草甲的分布和适生环境,有效防控烟草甲的危害,以世界范围的烟草甲分布数据和环境数据为基础,采用MaxEnt生态位模型的方法,预测其在全世界潜在适生范围。结果表明,影响烟草甲分布的重要环境因子为最湿季度平均温度、最暖季度降水量和最冷季度降水量,3个气候因子单因子贡献率分别是28.3%、26.3%、24.6%,累积贡献率达到了79.2%。在当前气候条件下,烟草甲的高适生区主要分布在中低纬度沿海地区,如中国南部、日本、加拿大东部沿海、非洲加蓬、西欧部分国家(德国、法国、比利时、瑞士),烟草甲潜在适生区面积总和约3.97×10^(7) km^(-2),其中约7.37×10^(6) km^(-2)为高适生区,约占18.57%。我国主要分布在南部各省,黄河以北地区分布相对较少。2021—2040年和2041—2060年,烟草甲潜在低适生区和高适生区面积均会显著增加;增加的高适生区主要集中在欧洲东部地区,增加的低适生区主要集中在乌克兰及俄罗斯西部等地区。综上,本研究结果能够为烟草甲的有效防控提供重要参考。
In order to further understand the distribution and suitable living environment of tobacco beetle,and effectively prevent and control its harm,according to the world distribution data and environmental data of Nicotiana tabacum,the MaxEnt niche model method was adopted to predict its potential suitable range worldwide.The results showed that the important environmental factors affecting tobacco distribution were the average temperature in the wettest season,the precipitation in the warmest season and the precipitation in the coldest season.The single factor contribution rates of the three climate factors were 28.3%,26.3%,and 24.6%,respectively,with a cumulative contribution rate of 79.2%.Under the current climatic conditions,the highly suitable areas for tobacco were mainly distributed in the coastal areas of middle and low latitudes,such as southern China,Japan,eastern Canada,Gabon in Africa and some countries in Western Europe(German,French,Belgian and Swiss).The total potential suitable area for tobacco A was about 3.97×10^(7) km^(-2),of which about 7.37×10^(6) km^(-2) is a highly suitable area,accounting for about 18.57%.In China,it was mainly distributed in the southern provinces,while it was relatively less distributed in the area north of the Yellow River.From 2021 to 2040 and from 2041 to 2060,the areas of low and high suitable areas increased significantly.The increased high-fitness areas were mainly concentrated in eastern Europe,and the increased low-fitness areas were mainly concentrated in Ukraine and western Russia.In conclusion,the results of this study can provide important reference for the effective prevention and control of tobacco beetle.
作者
陶应忠
胡云
TAO Yingzhong;HU Yun(Anshun Science and Technology Bureau,Anshun,Guizhou 561000,China;Anshun University,Agricultural College,Anshun,Guizhou 561000,China)
出处
《天津农业科学》
2025年第7期48-55,共8页
Tianjin Agricultural Sciences
基金
黔中特色高效农业植保信息化重点实验室(黔教技〔2022〕52号)。
关键词
MAXENT
烟草甲
高适生区
影响因子
MaxEnt
Lasioderma serricorne
very suitable area
influence factor
作者简介
陶应忠(1983-),男,贵州关岭人,农艺师,主要从事农业科技管理及技术指导与技术推广研究;通信作者:胡云(1982-),女,贵州织金人,硕士,讲师,主要从事作物遗传育种、蔬菜栽培研究。
