摘要
目的评价Prophet模型在深圳市手足口病日发病率预测中的效果,分析新冠病毒感染疫情、法定节假日及寒暑假期对手足口病预测的影响,为手足口病监测预警提供新思路。方法以深圳市2011—2023年手足口病日发病率数据为训练集,根据是否纳入新冠病毒感染疫情期间数据、是否控制假期项构建不同的Prophet模型,预测2024年1—7月的日发病率并与实际值比较,采用均方误差(MSE)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、对称平均绝对误差百分比(SMAPE)等4个指标评价拟合及预测效果。结果与纳入新冠病毒感染疫情期间数据的Prophet模型相比,未纳入的Prophet模型日均MSE、MAE、RMSE、SMAPE分别下降了45.64%、27.63%、25.89%、7.97%。控制假期项后模型MAE、RMSE、SMAPE无变化,但在预测时间跨度超过4个月时,日均MSE值降低了3.81%。在4个月内模型预测的MSE、MAE、RMSE、SMAPE(95%CI)依次为0.42(0.33,0.90)、0.51(0.45,0.75)、0.65(0.57,0.95)、0.42(0.24,0.44),而预测7个月时预测的MSE、MAE、RMSE、SMAPE(95%CI)分别为1.78(0.39,29.61)、0.94(0.48,3.05)、1.33(0.63,5.44)、0.40(0.33,0.43)。结论新冠病毒感染疫情期间(2020—2022年)手足口病日发病率对Prophet模型有较大的影响,控制节假日及寒暑假对短期预测效果的作用有限,但在长期预测时可提高模型精度。
Objective To evaluate the performance of the Prophet model in predicting the daily incidence of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Shenzhen city,to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,public holidays,and school vacations(summer/winter)on HFMD predictions,and to provide new insights for HFMD surveillance and early warning systems.Methods Using daily incidence rate data of hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)in Shenzhen city from 2011 to 2023 as a training set,we constructed different Prophet models based on two factors:(1)whether data from the COVID-19 epidemic period were included,and(2)whether holiday effects were adjusted.These models were then used to predict the daily incidence rate from January to July 2024,and the predictions were compared with the actual observations.Model performance was evaluated using four metrics:mean square error(MSE),mean absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE),and symmetric mean absolute percentage error(SMAPE).Results Compared to the Prophet model trained on data during the COVID-19 pandemic,the baseline Prophet model(without pandemic data)achieved reductions in daily average MSE,MAE,RMSE,and SMAPE of 45.64%,27.63%,25.89%,and 7.97%,respectively.After controlling for holiday effects,the MAE,RMSE,and SMAPE values remained unchanged.When the prediction horizon exceeded 4 months,the daily MSE decreased by 3.81%.For predictions within 4 months,the model yielded MSE,MAE,RMSE,and SMAPE values(with 95%confidence intervals)of 0.42(0.33,0.90),0.51(0.45,0.75),0.65(0.57,0.95),and 0.42(0.24,0.44),respectively.In contrast,the predictions at 7 months showed higher errors:MSE 1.78(0.39,29.61),MAE 0.94(0.48,3.05),RMSE 1.33(0.63,5.44),and SMAPE 0.40(0.33,0.43).Conclusions During the COVID-19 pandemic(2020-2022),the daily HFMD incidence rate significantly affected the performance of the Prophet model.While controlling for holidays and school vacations(winter/summer)had a limited effect on short-term predictions,it improved the model′s accuracy for long-term predictions.
作者
卢文海
宋丽霞
熊华威
陈志高
路滟
程雁鹏
张振
LU Wenhai;SONG Lixia;XIONG Huawei;CHEN Zhigao;LU Yan;CHENG Yanpeng;ZHANG Zhen(Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Pingdi Street Public Health Service Center,Longgang District,Shenzhen 518117,China;Department of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shenzhen 518055,China;The 7th Field Epidemiology Training Program in Shenzhen,Shenzhen 518055,China)
出处
《中国公共卫生》
北大核心
2025年第5期585-591,共7页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
深圳市科技计划项目(RKX20200327095612234)。
关键词
手足口病
Prophet模型
时间序列分析
预测
深圳市
hand,foot,and mouth disease
Prophet model
time series analysis
prediction
Shenzhen city
作者简介
第一作者:卢文海(1994-),主管医师,硕士,研究方向:传染病监测预警;通信作者:张振,E-mail:zhangzhen@wjw.sz.gov。
