中国内外需规模的量化评估与联动关系

Scale Measurement of and Linkage between China's Domestic and External Demand

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摘要对内需和外需规模进行科学核算,并挖掘其区域特征和部门特征,有助于培育完整的内需体系和做强内循环,推动中国经济行稳致远。本文构建了内需和外需的核算框架,借助Dagum基尼系数分解方法、核密度估计方法和耦合协调度模型,系统考察了1987—2017年中国内外需规模的基本特征。研究发现,第一,中国内需的规模和增速均大于外需,且各省份和各部门外需规模的相对差异远大于内需规模的相对差异,反映了外需在部分省份和部门发挥了更多的作用;第二,各省份和各部门内外需规模分布均存在梯度效应,且内需规模分布的梯度效应比外需更加明显,反映了中国内外需的潜力巨大,且扩大内需的潜力更大;第三,工业部门的内外需规模占全国比重始终维持在50%以上,表明中国内外需的主要阵地均在工业部门,为保持制造业比重基本稳定提供了坚实基础;第四,整体而言,中国内外需规模的耦合协调水平并不高,且省份之间与部门之间的差异巨大,反映出中国仍需促进国内市场和国际市场高效联通,以国内大循环更好牵引国际循环。 To construct a new pattern of development,it is essential to"prioritize domestic demand expansion as a strategic starting point and expedite the establishment of a comprehensive domestic demand system".At a State Council meeting on strengthening the domestic market,Premier Li Qiang stressed that strengthening the domestic market is the strategic foundation for development,recognizing domestic demand as the driving force and internal flows as the distinctive advantages of a major economy.However,the measurement of domestic and external demand scales and their regional and sectoral disparities remains critical for expanding the scale of domestic demand and cultivating a complete domestic demand system,which will facilitate the creation of a new pattern of development.This study constructs an accounting framework for domestic and external demand.Using the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,the kernel density estimation method,and a coupling coordination degree model,it systematically analyzes China's domestic and external demand scale from 1987 to 2017.The main findings are as follows.First,domestic demand consistently exceeds external demand in both scale and growth rate,and external demand exhibits significantly higher interprovincial and cross-sectoral disparities in scale,playing a greater role in some provinces and sectors.Second,there is a gradient effect in the scale distribution of domestic and external demand in provinces and sectors,and the gradient effect of the scale distribution of domestic demand is more obvious than that of external demand.It reflects that China has great potential for domestic and external demand,and the potential to expand domestic demand is greater.Third,the industrial sector accounts for more than 50%of the total demand.This indicates that the main positions of China's domestic and external demand are in the industrial sector,which provides a solid foundation for"keeping the proportion of manufacturing basically stable".Fourth,on the whole,the coupling and coordination level of China's internal and external demand is not high,with severe provincial and inter-sectoral divergences,indicating that China still needs to accelerate coordinating domestic and international markets and strengthen the linkage between internal and external demand.This paper contributes to existing literature in three ways.First,the concept of domestic demand is defined from the perspective of the demand object.Then based on the input-output model,the accounting framework was proposed for domestic and foreign demand scale,enriching the existing measurement indicators.Second,using the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,kernel density estimation method,and coupling coordination degree model,we systematically examined the spatial differences and linkage of domestic and foreign demand scales in China.Third,we explored the characteristics of domestic and foreign demand scales in different regions and different industrial sectors.This can provide support for formulating scientific and feasible policies to expand domestic demand.Our findings yield four key insights.First,we should deepen economic ties among regions and sectors and cultivate a complete domestic demand system.Second,we should effectively coordinate efforts for supply-side structural reform and demand-side management and establish a sustainable mechanism for expanding domestic demand.Third,we should improve the regional coordinated development strategy and narrow regional disparities in domestic demand development.Fourth,we should strengthen systems and mechanisms and smooth the channels for boosting internal and external demands in a coordinated way.

作者张少军丁晓强 ZHANG Shaojun;DING Xiaoqiang(Xiamen University,361005;Hefei University of Technology,230601)

机构地区厦门大学经济学院合肥工业大学经济学院

出处《财贸经济》北大核心 2025年第7期39-55,共17页 Finance & Trade Economics

基金国家社会科学基金项目“中国经济双循环的典型事实、作用机制与福利效应研究”(24FJLA001) 国家社会科学基金项目“数据要素高水平对外开放促进中国制造业国内国际创新链联动的机制与政策研究”(24CJL010) 福建省社会科学规划基金“福建省数字经济与实体经济深度融合发展实证研究”(FJ2024A001)。

关键词内需外需 Dagum基尼系数核密度估计耦合协调度 Domestic Demand External Demand Dagum Gini Coefficient Kernel Density Estimation Coupling Coordination Degree

分类号 F727 [经济管理—产业经济]

作者简介张少军,厦门大学经济学院教授;通讯作者:丁晓强,合肥工业大学经济学院讲师。