摘要
荒漠化治理是一个复杂的系统过程。人口、社会、经济、土地、环境等都是提升荒漠化治理效益的系统要素,构成了荒漠化治理的复杂场景。本文通过构建荒漠化治理效益的系统动力学模型,对荒漠化治理效益进行场景模拟与政策仿真,控制变量参数的变化,调整政策情景方案,探究不同政策工具的运用对荒漠化治理的影响效果。结果表明:在设定模式及参数下,人口政策的实施与荒漠化治理之间不存在正相关关系,相较于人口数量的变化,人类不当行为的矫正与控制更为重要;适当控制工业产值的比重能有效遏制荒漠化面积的扩大,产业结构的转型升级是提升荒漠化治理效益的重要环节;环保治理财政投入金额的增加能有效带来荒漠化面积的减少,综合提升荒漠化治理的社会、生态与经济效益。
Desertification control is a complex systemic process,influenced by various factors,including population,society,economy,land,and environment.These elements collectively create a challenging scenario for effective desertification management.By constructing a system dynamics model for the effectiveness of desertification control,scenario and policy simulations were conducted to explore the impact of different policy tools on the desertification control.By adjusting policy scenarios through variations in control variable parameters,the findings revealed that,within the established models and parameters,there was no positive correlation between the implementation of population policies and desertification control.Instead,correcting and controlling inappropriate human behaviors were more important than changes in population size.Furthermore,appropriately regulating the proportion of industrial output could effectively curb the expansion of desertified areas,while the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure were crucial for improving the effectiveness of desertification control.Additionally,increasing financial investment in environmental governance significantly reduced the area of desertification,comprehensively enhancing the socio-ecological and economic benefits ofdesertification control.
作者
哈斯
修兆延
盖志毅
洪凯
杨婷
Hasi;XIU Zhaoyan;GAI Zhiyi;HONG Kai;YANG Ting(School of Finance,Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot 010070,China;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics,Hohhot 010070,China;Inner Mongolia Rural Pastoral Area Management Capacity Modernization Research Base,Hohhot 010070,China;School of Economics and Management,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010019,China;Inner Mongolia Industrial Development Research Base,Hohhot 010070,China;Hulunbuir Honghuaerji Forestry Bureau,Hulunbuir 021114,China)
出处
《内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2025年第4期29-39,共11页
Journal of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
内蒙古自治区社会科学基金2024年度常规项目(2024EY08)
2025年度内蒙古自治区直属高校基本科研业务费项目(NCYWT25035)
内蒙古自治区高校铸牢中华民族共同体意识研究基地重大课题项目(ZLJD2403)。
关键词
政策仿真
政策情景
荒漠化治理效益
系统动力学
Policy simulation
Policy scenarios
Desertification control benefits
System dynamics
作者简介
哈斯(1987-),女,博士,讲师,主要从事农牧业经济理论与政策方面的研究,E-mail:hasi1857@163.com;通信作者:修兆延(1988-),男,博士,讲师,主要从事统计学与数据科学理论与应用方面的研究,E-mail:zhaoyan_xiu@126.com。
