摘要
在封闭经济的新凯恩斯理论模型基础上,纳入全球变暖因素,并假设全球变暖影响经济增长率,考察全球变暖对货币政策的影响。理论研究表明,全球变暖导致通货膨胀和名义利率上涨。基于全球192个经济体1981—2022年的数据,实证考察全球变暖对通货膨胀的影响。实证研究表明,短期中全球变暖对通货膨胀的影响呈U型关系,即通货膨胀会随着全球温度的升高先下降后上升。这一结论不受通货膨胀计算指标的影响,但是对于经济发展程度越低、越接近热带地区的经济体,全球变暖与通货膨胀的U型关系越显著。长期中全球变暖会显著增加通货膨胀。机制分析结果表明,全球变暖会通过影响农产品产量以及能源消耗量而影响通货膨胀。
Based on the New Keynesian theoretical model of a closed economy,this paper incorporates global warming and assumes that global warming affects the economic growth rate to examine its impact on monetary policy.Theoretical research shows that global warming leads to an increase in inflation and nominal interest rates.Using data from 192 economies from 1981to 2022,this paper investigates the impact of global warming on inflation.Empirical research indicates that in the short term,the impact of global warming on inflation presents a U-shaped structure,meaning that inflation will first decline and then rise as global temperatures increase.This conclusion is not affected by the inflation calculation indicators,but for economies with lower levels of economic development and those closer to the tropical regions,the U-shaped relationship between global warming and inflation is more significant.In the long term,global warming will significantly increase inflation.Mechanism analysis results show that global warming affects inflation by influencing agricultural output and energy consumption.
作者
王萌萌
刘晓辉
WANG Mengmeng;LIU Xiaohui(Institute of Chinese Financial Studies,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第7期59-76,共18页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“金融业制度型开放助推构建新发展格局的路径研究”(23&ZD059)。
作者简介
王萌萌(1995-),女,山东淄博人,西南财经大学中国金融研究院博士研究生,研究方向为国际金融、货币政策;刘晓辉(1977-),男,江苏淮阴人,西南财经大学中国金融研究院教授,博士,博士生导师,研究方向为汇率理论与政策、国际金融。
