摘要
农业是温室气体排放的重要来源之一。“双碳”目标下探究农业生产转型的碳排放影响效应有利于实现生态环境保护和农业低碳转型协调发展。选择南方丘陵山区的国家生态文明试验区福建省为研究对象,以县域为研究尺度,从“要素-结构-功能”三个维度构建农业生产转型评价指标体系,采用碳排放系数法、综合分析法、固定效应模型等方法,分析2006—2021年福建省农业碳排放时空格局,诊断农业生产转型类型,探究农业生产转型的碳排放差异及其影响效应。结果表明:(1)研究期内,福建省农业碳排放变化率整体呈现先增加后减少的趋势,农业碳排放强度稳步下降,平均降幅达63.9%。(2)福建省农业生产转型结果划分为四类,不同农业生产转型特征各异,引发了差异化碳排放变化趋势。(3)基准回归结果显示,劳均耕地面积增长是农业碳排放强度增加的重要因素,乡村非农就业率提高带来的绿色低碳技术推广是农业碳排放强度降低的主要动力。(4)异质性结果表明,技术进步、适度规模经营、构建特色现代农业体系是区域农业实现碳减排的有效途径。研究有助于为南方丘陵山区不同农业生产转型区域实现差异化农业低碳发展提供科学参考。
Agricultural activities constitute a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions,and their carbon emissions have garnered significant attention in addressing climate change and achieving sustainable development goals..Within China′s‘Dual Carbon’policy framework,investigating the carbon emission dynamics of agricultural production transformation is crucial for achieving the coordinated development of ecological environmental protection and low-carbon agricultural transformation.Focusing on Fujian Province—a national ecological civilization pilot zone in southern China′s mountainous terrain,this study established a county-scale analytical framework,an evaluation index system for agricultural production transformation was constructed based on the“factor-structure-function”framework.By integrating a methodological framework combining emission factor analysis,composite indexing,and fixed-effects regression,this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and characteristics of the change rate and emission intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian Province from 2006 to 2021.This study identified the types of agricultural production transformation,examined the transformation characteristics of each category,and explored the differences in carbon emissions and their influencing effects across different transformation categories.Key findings include:(1)Temporal trends showed the rate of change in agricultural carbon emissions in Fujian initially increased before declining,with emission intensity decreasing steadily(average reduction:63.9%).(2)The agricultural production transformation in Fujian Province can be categorized into four categories,each with distinct characteristics that led to differentiated trends in carbon emissions.(3)The benchmark regression results indicated that the increase in cultivated land per laborer was a significant factor driving the rise in agricultural carbon emission intensity.The promotion of green and low-carbon technologies resulting from the increase in rural non-agricultural employment rates was the main driver for reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity.(4)Heterogeneity analysis revealed that technological innovation,appropriately scaled farming practices,and specialized modern agricultural systems emerged as viable decarbonization pathways for achieving the carbon emission reduction in regional agriculture.Finally,based on the research findings,the study proposed the following recommendations for achieving agricultural production transformation and carbon emission reduction in the hilly and mountainous regions of southern China:promoting region-specific agricultural production transformation tailored to local conditions,reducing the use of agricultural inputs in the hilly regions of southern China,and implementing targeted strategies to advance carbon emission reduction in each transformation zone.These recommendations emphasize the need for context-specific policies that address the unique challenges and opportunities of different regions,ensuring that emission reduction efforts are both effective and equitable.The research can provide scientific references for the differentiated development of low-carbon agriculture in various regions undergoing agricultural production transformation in the hilly and mountainous areas of southern China.
作者
罗莎莎
赖庆标
冯琰玮
王修成
许标文
LUO Shasha;LAI Qingbiao;FENG Yanwei;WANG Xiucheng;XU Biaowen(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information,Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Fuzhou 350003,China;Fujian Geological Surveying and Mapping Institute,Fuzhou 350005,China;Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)
出处
《生态学报》
北大核心
2025年第13期6181-6193,共13页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目(72394402)
福建省科技计划-公益类科研院所专项(2022R1033006,2022R1033007,2024R1032004)。
关键词
农业碳排放
农业生产转型
影响效应
异质性分析
福建省
agriculture carbon emissions
transformation of agricultural production
influential effect
heterogeneous analysis
Fujian Province
作者简介
通讯作者:许标文,E-mail:13596447@qq.com。
