摘要
本文构建演化博弈模型,分析“保险+期货”模式下农户、保险公司、期货交易所(包括期货公司)及地方政府各方主体的行为策略,结合X县生猪产业案例的调研分析和仿真模拟,探索强化多元主体利益协同的提升策略。第一,四方演化博弈分析表明存在演化均衡点,即理论上能够实现“保险+期货”各方主体利益协同,期货交易所和地方政府的补贴支持是影响演化稳定策略和收益均衡的关键因素。第二,通过X县生猪产业“保险+期货”的案例分析,阐释了各方主体协同合作的条件和实现过程,强调了统筹各方主体利益对产业发展的推动作用。第三,基于案例的仿真模拟发现,相比期货交易所,地方政府的补贴行为对主体利益协同的影响更大,进一步提升合作效率的重点在于完善政府政策支持、提高财政资金使用效率和推进项目市场化。基于此,本文围绕财政支持机制优化、主体职能重构与评价体系完善等维度,提出促进“保险+期货”模式下多元主体利益协同的对策建议,进而助力农业产业链高质量发展。
This paper constructs an evolutionary game model to analyze the behavioral strategies of various stakeholders,including farmers,insurance companies,futures exchanges(including futures companies),and local governments,under the"insurance+futures"model.By integrating the research and analysis of the pig industry case in County X and simulation,the paper explores the improvement strategies to enhance the collaborative effect of the interests of multiple stakeholders.First,the four-party evolutionary game analysis reveals the existence of evolutionary equilibrium points,indicating that it is theoretically feasible to achieve coordination of interests among all parties involved in the"insurance+futures"model.Notably,subsidized support provided by futures exchanges and local governments plays a critical role in shaping the evolutionary stable strategy and achieving equilibrium in returns.Second,through the case study of the"insurance+futures"model applied to the pig industry in County X,this paper elucidates the conditions under which collaborative cooperation among stakeholders the process by which it is achieved.Furthermore,the paper highlights the critical role of aligning the interests of all stakeholders in promoting industrial development.Third,the simulation analysis based on case studies demonstrates that,in comparison to futures exchanges,the subsidy policies of local governments exert a more significant influence on the coordination of stakeholders′interests.To further enhance the efficiency of collaboration,it is essential to refine government policy support,optimize the allocation and utilization of fiscal resources,and advance the market-oriented development of projects.Based on this,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions for promoting the coordinated interests of multiple subjects under the"insurance+futures"model from the dimensions of optimizing the fiscal support mechanism,reconstructing the subject functions and improving the evaluation system,so as to contribute to the high-quality development of the agricultural industrial chain.
作者
陈紫凌
徐媛媛
李剑
李兴彪
CHEN Ziling;XU Yuanyuan;LI Jian;LI Xingbiao(School of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210042,China;Commodity Research Department,CITIC Futures Research Institute,Shenzhen 518048,China)
出处
《中南财经政法大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第4期148-160,共13页
Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“农产品期货与现货价格联合分布估计、基差风险与含权套期保值研究”(72173052)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“面向农业大数据的粮食安全监测预警研究”(72473048)
国家社科后期资助重点项目“‘保险+期货’赋能现代农业高质量发展的机制与路径研究”(24FJYA001)
教育部人文社科青年项目“多重冲击下农产品期货市场韧性测度、影响机制与提升路径研究”(KY202404518)。
关键词
保险+期货
演化博弈
农业保险
财政支持
Insurance+Futures
Evolutionary Game
Agricultural Insurance
Financial Support
作者简介
陈紫凌(1997-),女,江西南昌人,华中农业大学经济管理学院博士生;徐媛媛(1992-),女,山东枣庄人,南京林业大学经济管理学院副教授;通讯作者:李剑(1988-),男,山东烟台人,华中农业大学经济管理学院教授,博士生导师;李兴彪(1991-),男,河北邢台人,中信期货研究所商品研究部研究员。
