摘要
在全球气候变化的背景下,中国极端降水及极端干旱事件频发,大陆地区降水等级转移变化及重心周期变化的研究鲜有报道,揭示长时序降水量时空变化规律对于预防洪涝、干旱等自然灾害和区域的可持续发展具有重要的意义。基于中国逐月降水数据合成的年降水数据,借助于重心模型、转移矩阵、突变分析、趋势分析等研究方法,分析和探讨了1901—2022年中国不同时间尺度、不同研究区域的降水量时空变化特征及周期变化规律。研究结果表明:(1)降水等值线呈现出东北-西南走向,自东南沿海地区向西北内陆,中国大陆地区降水量呈现递减的规律,其中半湿润区面积占比最大,面积占比为28.96%,潮湿区面积占比最小,面积占比为13.77%;(2)1961—2022年相较于1901—1960年全国等降水量线呈现由东南沿海地区向西北内陆地区逐渐迁移的现象;(3)西南诸河流域地区降水降幅最大,约为-1.94 mm/a,呈现波动减少的趋势,淮河流域地区降水趋势增加较为明显,增幅约为4.12 mm/a,呈现波动增加的趋势,黄河流域地区降水变化较为稳定;(4)不同地区的降水量的重心变化存在一定的空间异质性,其中辽河流域的重心标准差椭圆面积最小,重心离散程度最小,表明该地区空间上降水量整体差异变化较小,海河流域重心整体呈现出三角形变化的规律,西北诸河流域重心在南北方向上呈现出南-北周期变化的规律,表明该地区降水量在南-北方向上降水量变化较大,珠江流域重心东西方向上呈现出西东周期变化的规律,表明该地区降水量在西-东方向上降水量变化较大;(5)在1900—1960年期间全国降水量变化趋势相对稳定,1961—2022年,降水量显著增加,降水量最终表现为由降水量低值等级向高值等级转移的趋势。研究结果可为决策者制定不同流域的防护发展政策提供一定的理论支撑和决策依据。
In the context of global climate change,China has experienced frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation and extreme drought events.However,there has been limited reporting on the changes in precipitation grade transitions and the periodic shifts in the center of gravity of precipitation across the mainland.Revealing the spatiotemporal patterns of long-term precipitation is of significant importance for preventing natural disasters such as floods and droughts,and for promoting regional sustainable development.Based on the annual precipitation data synthesized from monthly precipitation data in China,this study employs methods such as the center of gravity model,transition matrix,mutation analysis,trend analysis,and others to analyze and explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and periodic patterns of precipitation across different time scales and regions in China from 1901 to 2022.The findings indicate that:(1)The precipitation isopleths trend northeast-southwest,with precipitation decreasing from the southeastern coastal areas to the northwestern inland regions.The semi-humid zone covers the largest area,accounting for 28.96%,while the humid zone covers the smallest area,accounting for 13.77%.(2)From 1961 to 2022,compared to the period from 1901 to 1960,the national precipitation isopleths have gradually shifted from the southeastern coastal areas to the northwestern inland regions.(3)The Southwest River basins region experienced the largest decrease in precipitation,approximately-1.94 mm/a,showing a fluctuating decreasing trend.The Huai River Basin showed a significant increasing trend in precipitation,with an increase of about 4.12 mm/a,indicating a fluctuating increasing trend.The Yellow River basin exhibited relatively stable precipitation changes.(4)The center of gravity of precipitation in different regions shows certain spatial heterogeneity.The Liaohe River basin has the smallest standard deviation ellipse area for the center of gravity,indicating the least dispersion and suggesting smaller overall differences in precipitation across the region.The Haihe River basin's center of gravity generally follows a triangular pattern of change.The Northwest River basins region shows a north-south periodic change in the center of gravity,indicating significant precipitation changes in the north-south direction.The Pearl River basin's center of gravity shows a west-east periodic change,indicating significant precipitation changes in the west-east direction.(5)From 1900 to 1960,the national precipitation trend was relatively stable.From 1961 to 2022,precipitation significantly increased,ultimately showing a trend of shifting from lower to higher precipitation grades.The results of this study can provide theoretical support and decision-making basis for policymakers in developing protection and development systems for different river basins.
作者
杨吉存
郭兵
YANG Jicun;GUO Bing(School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Shandong University of Technology,Zibo 255000,China)
出处
《生态学报》
北大核心
2025年第12期5853-5870,共18页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42471329)
山东省高等学校“青创团队计划”团队项目(2022KJ224)。
关键词
降水量
时空格局
重心
转移矩阵
趋势分析
precipitation
spatiotemporal pattern
center of gravity
transition matrix
trend analysis
作者简介
通讯作者:郭兵.E-mail:guobingjl@163.com。
