摘要
受全球气候变化的影响,黄土高原极端降雨事件频发,严重威胁人民群众生命财产安全。极端降雨下的黄土滑坡出现3个新特点:点多面广危害大、突发性强监测难、链生性强防控难。同时,黄土体灾变过程也发生新的变化:水文响应速度加快、渗流模式显著变化;水-土相互作用加速、黄土体损伤劣化加剧;灾害防控从单一灾害向系统性防御转变。这给黄土滑坡灾害评价和防控带来很多新的难题,需要进一步研究黄土体多尺度灾变演化机理及风险演进机制,开展黄土地质灾害“区域-流域-斜坡”多尺度协同预警与风险防控,以应对极端降雨下黄土高原灾害新形势。系统梳理了黄土高原极端降雨规律、降雨作用下坡面流和坡体入渗规律、极端天气斜坡破坏模式、灾变力学机制和风险防控技术等方向最新研究进展;在此基础上,总结了本团队采用试验研究、理论分析、数值模拟、机器学习算法等方法得到的相关研究成果,可为黄土高原的防灾减灾提供理论依据和技术支持。
Under the influence of global climate change,the extreme rainfall events in Loess Plateau have become increasingly prevalent.Extreme rainfall triggers significant disasters,including landslides,collapses,mountain torrents,debris flows,and urban waterlogging,along with various secondary and derivative hazards,forming complex and dynamically evolving disaster chains,which seriously threaten the security of lives and property of the people in Loess Plateau.Among these,loess landslides are among the most numerous and hazardous types of disasters.Under extreme rainfall conditions,the loess landslide disasters exhibit three distinct characteristics compared to those induced under normal conditions:①numerous occurrence points,widespread distribution,and high hazard potential;②strong suddenness and difficulty in monitoring;③pronounced chain effects and challenges in prevention.Concurrently,disaster mechanisms have undergone significant transformations,including accelerated hydrological response rates,substantial changes in seepage patterns,intensified water-soil interactions,and accelerated deterioration of loess masses.This has led to a shift in prevention needs from single-hazard management to systemic defense strategies.These evolving characteristics and mechanisms present new challenges for assessing hazards and preventing landslides in loess areas.Further research is imperative to investigate the multi-scale evolutionary mechanisms of loess deterioration and risk progression,and to develop coordinated early warning technologies and prevention measures that span slope,watershed,and region scales for loess-related geological disasters under extreme rainfall conditions.This effort aims to address disaster prevention and mitigation needs in Loess Plateau,particularly in the context of global climate change.Key research directions,including extreme rainfall patterns in Loess Plateau,slope surface flow and infiltration mechanisms under rainfall,failure modes of loess slopes under extreme weather,disaster mechanics mechanisms,and risk prevention technologies are focused on.Several innovative findings have been obtained,building upon previous research foundations and employing experimental studies,theoretical analysis,numerical simulations,and machine learning algorithms.These results provide theoretical foundations and technical support for disaster prevention and mitigation in Loess Plateau.
作者
范文
邓龙胜
于渤
魏亚妮
梁鑫
魏心声
于宁宇
苑伟娜
梁佳宇
宋宇飞
张宝庆
FAN Wen;DENG Long-sheng;YU Bo;WEI Ya-ni;LIANG Xin;WEI Xin-sheng;YU Ning-yu;YUAN Wei-na;LIANG Jia-yu;SONG Yu-fei;ZHANG Bao-qing(School of Geological Engineering and Geomatics,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Geological Hazards Mechanism and Risk Control of Shaanxi Higher Education Institutes,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;School of Civil Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710061,Shaanxi,China;School of Sciences,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China;School of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China)
出处
《地球科学与环境学报》
北大核心
2025年第3期285-312,F0002,共29页
Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3003400)
国家自然科学基金项目(42220104005,42472348,42372314)。
关键词
滑坡
极端降雨
灾变力学
风险防控
气候变化
黄土高原
landslide
extreme rainfall
disaster mechanics
risk mitigation
climate change
Loess Plateau
作者简介
通信作者:范文(1967-),男,内蒙古武川人,教授,博士研究生导师,工学博士,博士后,E-mail:fanwen@chd.edu.cn。
