摘要
目的分析2014-2023年云南省猩红热的流行趋势及时空分布特征,为猩红热防控策略提供科学依据。方法采用Joinpoint回归分析计算平均年度变化百分比,使用空间自相关与时空聚集性分析探讨云南省猩红热发病的时空分布特征。结果2014-2023年云南省猩红热发病率呈波浪上升趋势,累计报告猩红热患者18210例,年均报告发病率为3.88/10万;男性年均发病率均高于女性;发病率最高的年龄组为5~<10岁年龄组(52.3%),其次为0~<5岁年龄组(37.3%);97.7%的病例集中在托幼儿童(43.4%)、学生(31.9%)和散居儿童(22.5%);猩红热发病率存在季节性(M=0.526~1.308),每年均呈双峰分布,即5-6月和11-12月;年均发病率前3的州(市)为丽江市(11.07/10万)、玉溪市(7.61/10万)和大理白族自治州(6.43/10万)。2014-2023年云南省猩红热发病存在5个聚集区,主要集中在云南省西北部丽江市和大理市,云南省南部和西南部红河哈尼族彝族自治州、玉溪市和普洱市,云南省东部文山壮族苗族自治州、曲靖市及东北部昭通市;2014-2023年云南省猩红热发病率不存在全局空间自相关(均P>0.05);局部自相关分析显示,“高-高”聚集区主要集中在云南省西北部丽江市宁蒗县和兰坪县、大理白族自治州永平县、玉溪市易门县和峨山县、曲靖市师宗县、昆明市禄劝县;“低-低”聚集区主要集中在云南省西部临沧市、大理白族自治州、楚雄彝族自治州、普洱市、西北迪庆藏族自治州部分地区、东部曲靖市部分地区、中部昆明市部分地区。结论2014-2023年云南省猩红热发病率呈上升趋势,托幼儿童和学生是发病的高危人群,发病存在空间聚集特征,应加强高发地区和重点人群的病例监测。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological trend and distribution characteristics of scarlet fever in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2023,and to provide scientific basis for scarlet fever prevention and control strategies.Methods Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage of change.And spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal aggregation analysis were used to explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of scarlet fever in Yunnan Province.Results A total of 18210 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2023,with an average annual incidence of 3.88/100000.The incidence of scarlet fever in Yunnan Province showed a wave upward trend in the past 10 years.The incidence of male was higher than that of female.The age group with the highest incidence was 5-<10 years old(52.3%),followed by 0-<5 years old(37.3%).97.7%of the cases were concentrated in preschool children(43.4%),students(31.9%)and scattered children(22.5%).The incidence of scarlet fever had obvious seasonality(M=0.526-1.308),with a bimodal distribution every year,concentrated in May-June and November-December.The top three areas with the highest average annual incidence were Lijiang City(11.07/100000),Yuxi City(7.61/100000)and Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture(6.43/100000).The results of spatio-temporal scanning analysis showed that there were five clustering areas of scarlet fever in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2023.The clustering areas were mainly concentrated in Lijiang City and Dali Prefecture in northwest Yunnan,Honghe Prefecture,Yuxi City and Pu′er City in south and southwest Yunnan,Wenshan Prefecture,Qujing City in east Yunnan and some areas of Zhaotong City in northeast Yunnan.There was no global spatial autocorrelation in the incidence of scarlet fever in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2023(all P>0.05).The local autocorrelation analysis showed that the high-high clustering areas were mainly concentrated in Ninglang County and Lanping County of Lijiang City,Yongping County of Dali Prefecture,Yimen County and Eshan County of Yuxi City,Shizong County of Qujing City and Luquan County of Kunming City in the northwest of Yunnan Province.The low-low aggregation areas are mainly concentrated in Lincang City,Dali Prefecture,Chuxiong Prefecture,part of Pu′er City,part of Diqing Prefecture in Northwest Yunnan,part of Qujing City in East Yunnan,and part of Kunming City in Central Yunnan.Conclusions Scarlet fever in Yunnan Province showed an upward trend.Kindergarten children and students are the high-risk groups of the disease.The incidence of scarlet fever in Yunnan Province has spatial clustering characteristics.We should pay close attention to the changes of epidemic trends and strengthen the monitoring of cases in high-risk areas and High-risk groups.
作者
李晓娟
王仕莲
苏建娟
崔凤灵
陈静文
张竞文
许国
洪汝丹
邓淑珍
LI Xiaojuan;WANG Shilian;SU Jianjuan;CUI Fengling;CHEN Jingwen;ZHANG Jingwen;XU Guo;HONG Rudan;DENG Shuzhen(Medical College of Henan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Dali University,Dali 671000,China;Monitoring Department of Yuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yuxi 653100,China;Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Health Promotion and Public Health Information Center,Kunming 650022,China;Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,School Health Office,Kunming 650022,China;Yunnan Minzu University Hospital of Internal Medicine,Kunming 650031,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
北大核心
2025年第5期527-535,共9页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
河南省自然科学基金(232300421164)
河南省高等学校重点研究计划项目基础研究专项(23ZX005)
河南省科技研发计划联合基金(优势学科培育类)(232301420070)。
关键词
猩红热
流行趋势
时空分布特征
Scarlet fever
Popular trend
Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics
作者简介
共同第一作者:李晓娟;共同第一作者:王仕莲;通信作者:邓淑珍,E-mail:461447164@qq.com。
