摘要
目的分阶段分析2004-2021年中国流行性感冒(简称流感)发病和死亡情况,为流感防控策略提供科学依据。方法数据来源于公共卫生科学数据中心流感年发病和死亡数据,采用Excel 2019软件建立流感发病和死亡数据库,使用R 4.3.1软件进一步分析处理数据,运用Joinpoint 5.0.2软件分析全国、各省(市、自治区)、各年龄段流感年度变化趋势。结果2004-2021年中国共报告8103459例流感病例,年均报告发病率为32.45/10万,年均报告病死率为8.82/10万。平均年度变化百分比为14.55%(95%CI:9.00%~22.78%,P<0.001),整体呈上升趋势。年均报告发病率前3名的省(市、自治区)分别为北京市、浙江省、广东省;年均报告死亡率前3位的省(市、自治区)分别为北京市、天津市、重庆市;年均报告病死率前3名的省(市、自治区)分别为新疆维吾尔自治区(简称新疆)、青海省、山东省,仅有海南省、西藏自治区未出现死亡病例。山西省、浙江省、安徽省的年发病率上升幅度最大(均P<0.05)。0~<15岁年龄组为流感高发人群,占总病例数的67.40%(5462111/8103459),年均报告死亡率与年均报告病死率最高的年龄组均为≥85岁年龄组,各年龄组年报告发病率均呈上升趋势。结论2004-2021年中国流感发病率呈先上升(2004-2019年)后下降(2019-2021年)趋势,除天津市、贵州省外,各省(市、自治区)整体均呈上升趋势。建议在北京市、天津市等人口密集区域,以及新疆、青海省等医疗资源不丰富的城市增设流感报告监测点,减少地区间的医疗服务差距,提升儿童和老年人流感疫苗接种比例。
Objective To analyze the morbidity and mortality of influenza(referred to as influenza)in China from 2004 to 2021 in stages,and to provide scientific basis for influenza prevention and control strategies.Methods The data were obtained from the annual morbidity and mortality data of influenza from the Public Health Science Data Center.Excel 2019 software was used to establish the influenza morbidity and mortality database.R 4.3.1 software was used to further analyze and process the data.And Joinpoint 5.0.2 software was used to analyze the annual change trend of influenza across China,in each province(city and autonomous region)and within each age group.,and the annual trend of influenza in each age group.Results A total of 8103459 cases of influenza were reported in China from 2004 to 2021,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 32.45/100000 and an average annual reported case-fatality rate of 8.82/100000.The average annual percentage change was 14.55%(95%CI:9.00%-22.78%,P<0.001),with an overall increasing trend.The top 3 provinces in terms of aver-age annual reported morbidity were Beijing,Zhejiang,and Guangdong;the top 3 provinces in terms of average annual reported mortality were Beijing,Tianjin,and Chongqing;and the top 3 provinces in terms of average annual reported morbidity and mortality were Xinjiang,Qinghai,and Shandong,with only two provinces,Hainan and Xizang,showing no fatal cases.Shanxi,Zhejiang,and Anhui had the greatest in-crease in annual incidence rates(all P<0.05).The age group of 0-<15 years old had the highest inci-dence of influenza,accounting for 67.40%of the total number of cases(5462111/8103459),and the age group with the highest annual average reported mortality rate and annual average reported case-fatality rate was the group of≥85 years old,and the annual reported incidence rates of all age groups showed an increasing trend.Conclusions From 2004 to 2021,incidence rate of influenza in China showed an in-creasing(2004-2019)and then decreasing(2019-2021)trend,and all provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government),except Tianjin and Guizhou,showed an overall increasing trend.It is recommended that additional influenza reporting and surveillance sites be estab-lished in densely populated areas such as Beijing and Tianjin,and in cities that are not rich in healthcare resources,such as Xinjiang and Qinghai,to reduce the disparity of healthcare services between regions and to increase the proportion of influenza vaccination for children and the elderly.
作者
邓萍
姜雨淇
龙江
赵金华
张阳
覃胜林
DENG Ping;JINAG Yuqi;LONG Jiang;ZHAO Jinhua;ZHANG Yang;QIN Shenglin(Department of Public Health,Qinghai University Medical College,Xining 810001,China;Business Department of Qinghai Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xining 810007,China;Institute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 400700,China)
出处
《中华疾病控制杂志》
北大核心
2025年第5期512-518,535,共8页
Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention
基金
国家自然科学基金(12371503)
公共卫生人才培养支持项目(2024年)
“昆仑英才·高原名医”人才培养项目(青卫健办[2021]104号)。
作者简介
共同第一作者:邓萍;共同第一作者:姜雨淇;通信作者:龙江,E-mail:68803648@163.com;通信作者:赵金华,E-mail:99801973@qq.com。
