我国外汇衍生品监管效果的量化评价:框架构建与效果评估

Quantitative Evaluation of the Regulatory Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Derivatives in China:Framework Construction and Effectiveness Assessment

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摘要 “一带一路”倡议推动外汇衍生品市场飞速发展,但衍生品的“三高”特征也给外汇市场稳定和企业经营带来巨大挑战,因此,加强衍生品监管具有重要意义。本文构建了六维度的中国外汇衍生品监管效果量化评估框架和指标体系,利用314家我国海外投资企业的调查数据,使用SEM模型开展了量化评价。研究发现:在总体上,我国外汇衍生品监管取得了良好效果,显著提升了衍生品市场的监管水平和微观企业的衍生品交易水平,并增强了微观企业的风控能力。按照各维度的作用大小排序,依次为:服务实体经济能力、健全业务操作流程、增强风险管理水平。相对而言,规范交易动机和完善交易信息披露机制的直接作用系数不显著,但可通过健全业务操作流程这一中间变量对衍生品监管效果产生间接的正向影响。本文构建的监管效果评估框架和指标体系,对于优化监管法规体系、促进外汇衍生品市场健康发展具有重要的理论和实践价值。 The“Belt and Road”initiative has spurred rapid development in the foreign exchange derivatives market.However,the“three high”characteristics of derivatives pose significant challenges to the stability of the foreign exchange market and corporate operations,underscoring the importance of strengthening derivatives regulation.This paper constructs a six-dimensional quantitative evaluation framework and indicator system for assessing the effectiveness of China's foreign exchange derivatives regulation.utilizing survey data from 314 Chinese overseas investment enterprises,the study employs a Structural Equation Modeling(SEM)approach for quantitative evaluation.The research reveals that,overall,China's foreign exchange derivatives regulation has achieved favorable outcomes,significantly enhancing the regulatory level of the derivatives market and effectively improving the trading level and risk control capabilities of micro-enterprises.Ranked by the degree of their influence,they are:the capacity to serve the real economy,the improvement of business operation processes,and the enhancement of risk management capabilities.Although the direct impact coefficients of standardizing trading motives and improving transaction information disclosure mechanisms are not significant,they can indirectly positively influence derivatives regulation effectiveness through the intermediary variable of improving business operation processes.The regulatory effectiveness evaluation framework and indicator system constructed in this paper hold significant theoretical and practical value for optimizing regulatory legal frameworks and fostering the healthy development of the foreign exchange derivatives market.

作者赵峰李子怡马光明 ZHAO Feng;LI Ziyi;MA Guangming

机构地区北京工商大学经济学院金融系中央财经大学会计学院中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

出处《金融监管研究》北大核心 2025年第5期92-114,共23页 Financial Regulation Research

基金国家社会科学基金项目“中国外汇衍生品监管指数构建、监管效果及监管优化研究”(编号:20BJY260)的资助。

关键词 “一带一路” 外汇衍生品监管效果 SEM模型 Belt and Road Foreign Exchange Derivatives Regulatory Effectiveness SEM Model

分类号 F832 [经济管理—金融学]

作者简介赵峰,经济学博士,教授,博士生导师,北京工商大学经济学院金融系,联系方式:zfeng0361@163.com;李子怡,硕士研究生,中央财经大学会计学院,联系方式:m18050370253@163.com;通讯作者:马光明,经济学博士,副教授,中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,联系方式:mggbob@126.com。