摘要
随着我国老龄化趋势的加重,日益增加的养老负担使得三代家庭需要重新权衡内部资源的分配比重,很有可能挤占家庭人力资本投资,引发代际冲突或矛盾。本文立足长寿时代下微观家庭人力资本投资视角,构建三期世代交叠模型,从理论层面探究人口老龄化对家庭人力资本投资的影响机制,运用2012-2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)4期数据验证家庭人力资本投资的代际冲突,并阐释人口老龄化对家庭人力资本投资的影响路径,以期探寻优化家庭资源配置的新思路。研究发现:人口老龄化对家庭人力资本投资有着显著的挤占效应,微观家庭人力资本投资存在代际冲突;老龄化负担对中低收入家庭和中高龄老人家庭的人力资本投资的挤占效应更为明显,对农村家庭人力资本投资有负向影响;家庭收入在养老负担对家庭人力资本投资影响机制中起中介作用,家庭收入的增加有助于缓解老龄化带来的负向影响,对家庭人力资本投资的代际冲突有所改善;家庭商业保险的投入显著增强了家庭收入对家庭人力资本投资的正向影响,家庭商业保险支出能够有效削弱老龄化对家庭人力资本投资的挤出效应。
With the intensification of population aging trend in China,the increasing burden of elderly care makes it necessary for three-generation families to reweigh their internal allocation of resources,which may squeeze family human capital investment and trigger intergenerational conflicts.Based on the perspective of micro-family human capital investment in the longevity era,this paper constructs a three-stage overlapping generation model and applies the data from four periods of the 2012-2018 China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)to validate the intergenerational conflict of family human capital investment explain the impact path of population aging on family human capital investment and explore new ideas for optimizing family resource allocation.The study has found that population aging has an obvious crowding-out effect on household human capital investment,and there are intergenerational conflicts in micro-family human capital investment.The crowding-out effect of the aging burden on human capital investment is more obvious for low-income and middle-income households and families with middle-aged and senior-elderly people.Family income plays a mediating role in the impact mechanism of elderly care burden on family human capital investment.An increase in family income helps alleviate the negative effects of aging and improves intergenerational conflicts in family human capital investment.An increase in family income helps alleviate the negative effects of aging and improves intergenerational conflicts in family human capital investment.The investment in household commercial insurance significantly strengthens the the positive effect of family income on family human capital investment and household commercial insurance expenditures can effectively weaken the crowding-out effect of aging on household human capital investment.
作者
华静
范璐杰
陆祺灵
HUA Jing;FAN Lu-jie;LU Qi-ling(College of Economics and Management,Ningxia University,Yinchuan,750021)
出处
《中国劳动》
2025年第2期57-77,共21页
China Labor
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“农村家庭育赡投入之代际冲突与干预对策研究”,批准号:21CSH020
宁夏哲学社会科学规划一般项目“数字生产力驱动宁夏农村低收入群体增收的机制与路径研究”,批准号:24NXBYJ08。
关键词
人口老龄化
家庭人力资本投资
家庭收入
商业保险
有调节的中介效应
population aging
household human capital investment
household income
commercial insurance
moderated mediation effects
作者简介
通讯作者:华静,宁夏大学经济管理学院副教授,硕士生导师,管理学博士,研究方向为家庭经济学、农村社会学;范璐杰,宁夏大学经济管理学院,硕士研究生,研究方向为农业经济理论与政策;陆祺灵,宁夏大学经济管理学院,管理学硕士,研究方向为农业资源与环境管理。
