摘要
运用耦合协调度模型对中部六省份“三医”耦合协调度的时空演变进行分析,在此基础上运用灰色预测模型动态预测2025—2030年中部地区“三医”耦合协调水平的发展变化,为推进“三医”联动背景下中部六省份医疗卫生事业有序发展提供参考依据。结果显示,2018—2022年中部六省份“三医”耦合协调水平稳步上升,但整体水平较低,区域差异显著。预测到2030年中部六省份全部处于协调水平,其中四省份进入高水平耦合阶段。中部地区应该进一步强化基层医疗服务能力,推进医保支付方式改革,加大财政支持,推动医药产业转型升级。
This study employs a coupling coordination degree model to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of the coupling coordination level of the“Three Medical Systems”(medical care,basic medical insurance,and pharmaceutical industry)in the six central provinces of China.Building on this analysis,a grey forecasting model is applied to dynamically forecast the future development trends of the“Three Medical Systems”coupling coordination level in the central region from 2025 to 2030,providing a reference for advancing the orderly development of the healthcare systems in the six central provinces under the framework of integrated“Three Medical Systems”reform.The results indicate a steady increase in the coupling coordination level of the“Three Medical Systems”in the six central provinces from 2018 to 2022,though the overall level remained low with significant regional disparities.Predictions suggest that by 2030,all six provinces will reach a coordinated stage of development,with four provinces entering a high-level coupling phase.To achieve this,the central provinces should further strengthen primary medical care capacity,advance reforms in medical insurance payment methods,increase fiscal support,and promote the transformation and upgrading of the pharmaceutical industry.
作者
汪士龙
李德勋
邓晶
郭瑞瑞
WANG Shilong;LI Dexun;DENG Jing;GUO Ruirui(School of Medical Economics and Management,Philosophy and Social Sciences of Anhui Province,Anhui University of Chinese Medicine,Hefei 230012,China;Key Laboratory of Data Science and Innovation Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Philosophy and Social Sciences of Anhui Province,Anhui University of Chinese Medicine,Hefei 230012,China)
出处
《南京医科大学学报(社会科学版)》
2025年第3期219-226,共8页
Journal of Nanjing Medical University(Social Sciences)
基金
安徽省高校科研项目“安徽省紧密型县域医共体慢病健康管理服务能力评价及路径创新”(2023AH050717)
安徽省研究生质量工程项目“老年慢性病人群的智能居家药箱设计”(RC2400000774)
安徽省教育厅新时代培人质量工程项目“医学院校公共管理学科研究生双创教育培养改革研究”(2023cxcys116)
合肥市社会科学规划项目“创新驱动背景下合肥高职教育与新兴产业协同发展研究”(HFSKYY202559)。
关键词
三医联动
耦合协调
中部地区
灰色预测模型
Three Medical Systems
coupling coordination
central China
grey forecasting model
作者简介
汪士龙(2000-),男,安徽阜阳人,硕士研究生在读,研究方向为健康管理;通信作者:李德勋(1972-),男,安徽合肥人,博士,教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为卫生政策、卫生事业管理,lidexunoo@126.com。
