摘要
【目的】研究青海汛期极端小时降水特征,提高短时强降水的监测预报预警能力。【方法】利用青海省2014—2023年汛期国家站及区域站逐小时降水资料,基于百分位阈值法分析青海省汛期小时降水、短时强降水及极端小时降水的时空分布特征。【结果】结果表明:①10年间短时强降水站次和极端小时降水站次均呈现上升趋势,高频次年份与强降水年份分布一致,表现为2022年频次最高,极端性显著。20~30 mm/h雨强在所有雨强中占比最大;②青海汛期小时降水量、短时强降水站次及极端小时降水均表现出8月最强,7月次之,6月及9月最小;③短时强降水及极端小时降水日变化特征一致,午后至前半夜发生最多,上午及后半夜出现概率较小;④极端小时降水阈值呈现出自东南向西北减小的趋势,阈值超过20 mm的区域主要位于青海东部。【结论】造成不一样雨强的关键因子可能与不稳定能量、水汽的精细变化有较大的关系,有待进一步研究。
[Purposes]In order to investigate the characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation during the flood season in Qinghai,and improve the monitoring,forecasting,and early warning capabilities of shortterm heavy precipitation.[Methods]The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of hourly pre⁃cipitation,short-term heavy precipitation and extreme hourly precipitation during the flood season in Qinghai were analyzed based on hourly precipitation data from national and regional stations in Qinghai Province from 2014 to 2023 using the percentile threshold method.[Findings]The results showed that:①Both the frequency of stations of short-term heavy precipitation and extreme hourly precipitation showed an upward trend during the 10 years.The years with high frequencies of occurrence were consis⁃tent with those of heavy precipitation,showing that the highest frequency and significant extremity oc⁃curred in 2022.The rain intensity of 20~30 mm/h accounted for the largest proportion among all rainfall intensities.②The hourly precipitation,the number of stations experiencing short-term heavy precipita⁃tion,and extreme hourly precipitation were the strongest in August,followed by July,and the weakest in June and September during the flood season in Qinghai.③The diurnal variation characteristics of shortterm heavy precipitation and extreme hourly precipitation were consistent,with the highest occurrence rate from the afternoon to the first half of the night and a lower probability in the morning and later night.④The threshold values of extreme hourly precipitation showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest,and the areas with thresholds exceeding 20 mm were mainly located in the eastern part of Qin⁃ghai.[Conclusions]The key factors causing different rainfall intensities may be closely related to the subtle variations in unstable energy and water vapor,which need further study.
作者
马琼
马晓真
马秀梅
MA Qiong;MA Xiaozhen;MA Xiumei(Qinghai Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Xining 810001,China;Qinghai Hydrology and Water Resources Forecasting Center,Xining 810001,China)
出处
《河南科技》
2025年第11期106-111,共6页
Henan Science and Technology
基金
2024年中国气象局复盘总结专项项目(FPZJ2024-141)。
关键词
青海高原
短时强降水
极端小时降水
时空分布
Qinghai Plateau
short-time heavy rainfall
extreme hourly rainfall
temporal and spatial distribution
作者简介
马琼(1990-),女,硕士,工程师,研究方向:高原极端暴雨。
