摘要
稀土元素钕作为高性能风力发电机中不可或缺的材料,在加速能源系统向清洁、可再生能源低碳转型中起着关键作用。随着中国“碳中和”目标的推进和新型风机技术的发展,钕在高性能风力发电机中的应用需求迅速增加。本文研究旨在追踪2011—2022年中国风电系统中钕元素的历史物质流动规律,并基于“碳中和”目标与技术进步的双重驱动,设定四种发展情景,预测至2060年中国风电发展对钕元素的需求,识别潜在的供给约束。研究结果表明,2011—2022年间中国风电系统中钕元素开采量持续上升,进口比例从15%增至35%。风机中的钕元素年度需求从1098 t增加到2896 t,反映了风电产业的快速发展显著提升钕元素的需求。未来需求预测结果显示,在“碳中和”目标和技术进步的双重驱动下,钕元素的需求将大幅上升,特别是在碳中和-技术激进发展情景下,累计需求量将达到44万t,是基准发展情景的2.1倍。原生稀土矿产开采难以满足未来需求,退役风机中钕元素的回收利用成为缓解供需矛盾的关键。为保证钕元素的可持续稳定供应,需建立循环多渠道供应体系,精细化全产业链管理策略,促进技术创新实现资源高效利用与环境友好发展,推动全球化钕元素供应网络建设,以此应对未来风电发展中可能出现的资源供给挑战,完善“碳中和”目标背景下钕元素供应链韧性建设。
Neodymium(Nd),as an indispensable mineral in high-performance wind turbines,plays a key role in accelerating the clean and renewable transition of energy systems.With the advancement of China’s carbon neutrality goals and the development of next-generation wind turbine technologies,the demand for neodymium in high-performance wind turbines has increased rapidly.This study aims to trace the historical material flow patterns of neodymium in China’s wind power system from 2011 to 2022,and establishes four scenarios under the dual drivers of carbon neutrality and technological progress to project neodymium demand up to 2060 while identifying potential supply constraints.The results indicate that neodymium exploitation in China’s wind power sector exhibited continuous growth from 2011 to 2022,with the import share increasing from 15%to 35%.The demand for neodymium in wind turbines surged from 1098 tons to 2896 tons,reflecting the substantial expansion of the wind power industry and its escalating neodymium requirements.Future demand projections reveal that,driven by both carbon neutrality objectives and technological advancements,neodymium demand will rise significantly,particularly under the carbon neutrality–technology progressive scenario(CNS-PRO),where cumulative demand is expected to reach 440000 tons,2.1 times that of the business-as-usual(BAU)scenario.Primary rare earth mining alone will be insufficient to meet future demand,making the recycling of neodymium from decommissioned wind turbines a critical measure to alleviate supplydemand imbalances.To ensure sustainable and stable neodymium supply,it is imperative to establish a diversified circular supply system,implement refined full-industry-chain management strategies,and foster technological innovation to enhance resource efficiency and environmentally friendly development.Additionally,promoting the construction of a globalized neodymium supply network will be essential to address potential resource challenges in future wind power development and strengthen the resilience of the neodymium supply chain in the context of carbon neutrality.
作者
葛泽文
庄沐凡
张娴
张天毓
GE Zewen;ZHUANG Mufan;ZHANG Xian;ZHANG Tianyu(School of Accounting and Finance,Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College,Zhangzhou 363123,China;Institute of Ecology and Sustainable Development,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200020,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College,Zhangzhou 363123,China;School of Environmental Science and Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2025年第6期38-48,共11页
China Mining Magazine
基金
上海市2024年度“科技创新行动计划”软科学研究项目/青年项目资助(编号:24692105700)
上海社会科学院2025年院重大系列课题资助(编号:2025ZD037)
漳州市哲学社会科学研究规划课题资助(编号:LX2025312006)。
关键词
钕
物质流分析
碳中和
风电技术
循环利用
neodymium
material flow analysis
carbon neutrality
wind power technology
recycling
作者简介
第一作者:葛泽文,男,汉族,硕士,讲师,主要从事资源物质流分析、环境管理政策等方面的研究工作,E-mail:Zewenge@xujc.com;通讯作者:庄沐凡,女,汉族,博士,助理研究员,主要从事循环经济、资源管理等方面的研究,E-mail:mf_Zhuang@sass.org.cn。
