摘要
设计考虑水-土-能关联的农业能源利用碳排放效应评价指标和水-土-能匹配指数,并引入Dagum基尼系数,分析了我国农业水土资源与能源利用的碳排放效应及水-土-能匹配度。构建包含水土资源和能源因素的Kaya恒等式,应用对数平均迪氏指数分解法(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index, LMDI),识别并研究了农业能源利用碳排放的驱动因素及其贡献。主要结论为:(1)研究期内,我国农业用水碳排放强度(Carbon Emission Intensity of Water Use,Iwu)、土地利用碳排放强度(Carbon Emission Intensity of Land Use,Ilu)、能源使用碳排放强度(Carbon Emission Intensity of Energy Use,Ieu)的增长率分别为7.72%、6.31%和-1.77%。我国农业Ilu的Dagum基尼系数均值最大,Ieu的均值最小,3个强度指数的空间差异均主要由组间差异贡献。(2)产销平衡区的水-土和水-能匹配度均最优,粮食主销区的土-能匹配度最优。(3)水资源经济产出和人口是我国农业能源利用碳排放的促进因素,而水土资源投入比、能源结构、人均耕地面积、能源利用效率则为抑制因素。(4)水资源经济产出和人口对各功能区农业能源利用碳排放均起促进作用,而能源结构和能源利用效率则表现为抑制作用。水土资源投入比是粮食主销区和产销平衡区农业能源利用碳排放的促进因素,却是粮食主产区的抑制因素。因此,应加强水土资源保护、优化农业能源结构,以提升能源利用率,促进农业绿色低碳发展。
This study develops evaluation indicators to assess the carbon emission effects of energy use in agriculture,taking into account the water-land-energy nexus and the compatibility of these resources.Additionally,by introducing the Dagum Gini ratio,we analyze the carbon emission effects associated with agricultural water and land resources,as well as energy use in China,along with the degree of congruence in water-land-energy utilization.Furthermore,the driving factors and contributions to agricultural carbon emissions from energy use were identified and analyzed by constructing a Kaya identity that incorporates water,land,and energy factors,and by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI).The main conclusions are as follows:(1)During the research period,China s agricultural carbon emission intensity for water use(I_(wu)),land use(I_(lu)),and energy use(I_(eu))increased at rates of 7.72%,6.31%,and-1.77%,respectively.The Dagum Gini coefficient for China s agricultural I-lu had the highest average value,whereas I eu had the lowest average value.The spatial disparities among the three intensity indices were primarily driven by the extended Gini inequality across regions.(2)The grain production-consumption balanced areas demonstrated the highest compatibility in both the water-land and water-energy nexus,whereas the major grain-consuming areas exhibited the strongest alignment in the land-energy nexus.(3)Economic output from water use and population growth were contributing factors to China s agricultural carbon emissions resulting from energy use.In contrast,the input ratio of water and land resources,energy structure,per capita arable land area,and energy efficiency served as inhibitory factors.(4)In all functional zones,agricultural carbon emissions from energy use were driven by economic output from water use and population growth,while the energy structure and energy efficiency acted as inhibitory factors.The input ratio of water and land resources contributed to agricultural carbon emissions from energy use in major grain-consuming areas and grain production-consumption balanced areas,whereas it served as an inhibitory factor in major grain-producing areas.Therefore,it is essential to enhance water and land conservation,optimize the agricultural energy structure,improve energy efficiency,and promote green and low-carbon development within the agricultural sector.
作者
江文渊
JIANG Wenyuan(Department of Science&Technology and Ecological Civilization,Party School of Hunan Provincial Committee of C.P.C,Changsha 410006,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
北大核心
2025年第6期2441-2458,共18页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2017ZX07107-001)
湖南省哲学社会科学青年项目(21YBQ026)。
关键词
环境学
水-土-能关联
农业
碳排放效应
驱动因素
environmentalology
water-land-energy nexus
agriculture
carbon emission effects
driving factors
作者简介
江文渊,副教授,管理学博士,从事资源能源管理与低碳发展研究,jiangwenyuan830@163.com。
