摘要
基于概率分析和后果评价的风险评估是一种成熟的核安全分析方法。与传统核安全事件不同,核安保事件的发生是人为蓄意引发的。本文基于典型核安保事件发生的内在逻辑,分析梳理核安保事件发展过程中影响事件风险的概率和后果要素因子,并进行赋值量化。通过要素赋值,实现了典型核安保事件风险值的计算。应用该研究的核安保风险计算方法,对比计算了要素变化对风险值产生的影响。计算结论与近年来敏感地标增设辐射探测设备、核设施实物保护系统增加新防御手段、海关口岸部署辐射探测设备等安保措施的有效性相符,验证了该风险评估方法的适宜性。
Risk assessment based on the probability analysis and consequence evaluation is a mature nuclear safety analysis method.Unlike traditional nuclear safety events,nuclear security events are deliberately initiated.According to the internal logic of classical nuclear security events,this paper analyzed and sorted out the probability and consequence factors that affected the risk during the development of nuclear security events and assigned values to quantify them.Then the risk value of classical nuclear security events was calculated.The nuclear security risk calculation method used in this study was applied to compare and calculate the impact of element changes on risk values.The calculation conclusion is consistent with the effectiveness of security measures such as adding radiation detection equipment to sensitive landmarks,adding new defense measures to physical protection systems of nuclear facilities,and deploying radiation detection equipment at customs ports in recent years,which verifies the suitability of this risk assessment method.
作者
杨丽芳
陈芳雷
韩叶良
刘明葳
YANG Lifang;CHEN Fanglei;HAN Yeliang;LIU Mingwei(State Nuclear Security Technology Center,Beijing 102401,China)
出处
《核科学与工程》
北大核心
2025年第2期337-343,共7页
Nuclear Science and Engineering
关键词
核安保事件
概率分析
后果评价
风险评估
Nuclear security event
Probability analysis
Consequence evaluation
Risk assessment
作者简介
杨丽芳(1982-),女,河北石家庄人,高级工程师,硕士,现主要从事核安保、核技术应用等相关研究。
