摘要
为考察中国粮食主产区种植业碳排放与粮食产量之间的动态关系,揭示其内在驱动因素,本文测算了2000−2022年种植业碳排放,利用Tapio脱钩模型构建种植业碳排放与粮食产量的脱钩指数,并进一步采用LMDI模型对脱钩指数进行分解。结果表明:①2000−2022年粮食主产区的种植业碳排放量累计减少644.31×10^(4) t,且在趋势上呈现“短暂下降−持续增长−慢速下调−迅速减少”的四阶段特征。从结构上看,水稻和氮肥是种植业碳排放的主要来源,在所有碳源中占比之和接近80%。②粮食主产区种植业碳排放存在显著的省际差异,湖南省和吉林省分别是粮食主产区2022年碳排放量最多和最少的省份,分别为1475.85×10^(4)和261.45×10^(4) t。③多数地区种植业碳排放与粮食产量的脱钩关系从弱脱钩改善为强脱钩,其中,安徽省、山东省脱钩状况综合最佳,河南省和四川省的脱钩改善最为明显。④农业生产效率和农村人口均显著促进种植业碳排放与粮食产量脱钩,而农业产业结构、地区产业结构、地区经济水平和城镇化水平在多数情况下抑制脱钩。研究显示,粮食主产区各省份种植业碳排放发展特征以及与粮食产量的脱钩情况差异显著,需要制定差异化策略,推动低碳农业与粮食安全协调发展。
In order to examine the dynamic relationship between carbon emissions from the planting industry and grain yield in China's major grain-producing areas and reveal its driving factors,this study calculated the carbon emissions from the planting industry from 2000 to 2022,constructed a decoupling index between carbon emissions form the planting industry and grain yield using the Tapio decoupling model,and further decomposed the decoupling index using the LMDI model.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2022,the carbon emission of planting in the major grain-producing regions decreased by 644.31×10^(4) tons in total,showing a trend characterized by four stages:‘short decline-sustained increase-slow decrease-rapid reduction’structurally,methane emissions from rice cultivation and nitrogen fertilizer application are the main sources of carbon emissions from the planting,accounting for nearly 80%of all carbon emissions.(2)There are significant inter-provincial differences in carbon emissions from planting in major grain-producing areas.In 2022,Hunan Province recorded the highest emissions at 1475.85×10^(4) tons,while Jilin Province had the lowest emissions at 261.45×10^(4) tons.(3)The decoupling of carbon emissions from planting and grain yield improved from weak decoupling to strong decoupling in most regions.Among them,Anhui Province and Shandong Province have the best overall decoupling degree,while Henan Province and Sichuan Province showed the most significant improvement in decoupling.(4)Agricultural production efficiency and rural population are the key drivers of the decoupling between carbon emissions form the planting sector and grain yield,with rural population being more effective than agricultural production efficiency in recent years.Factors such as agricultural industrial structure,regional industrial structure,regional economic level,and urbanization level mostly inhibit the decoupling of crop carbon emissions from grain output.Research indicates that the characteristics of carbon emissions from planting and their decoupling from grain yield vary significantly across provinces in major grain-producing regions,suggesting the need for differentiated strategies to promote the coordinated development of low-carbon agriculture and food security.
作者
陈逸
戴小文
CHEN Yi;DAI Xiaowen(School of Economics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Management,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China)
出处
《环境科学研究》
北大核心
2025年第6期1173-1183,共11页
Research of Environmental Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(No.23XJY015)。
关键词
种植业
碳排放
粮食产量
脱钩
驱动因素
planting industry
carbon emissions
grain yield
decoupling
driving force
作者简介
陈逸(1998-),女,四川成都人,123020105001@smail.swufe.edu.cn;戴小文(1982-),责任作者,男,四川成都人,教授,博士,主要从事农业碳减排、农业绿色发展研究,daixiaowen@sicau.edu.cn。
