摘要
清代直隶秋粮收成奏报档案主要包括奏折和题本两个系统。综合现存于海峡两岸的248件档案,1736—1911年间直隶州县一级的秋收分数数据完整率为62.1%,而府州一级达到94.9%。基于档案中实收与约收分数的统计关系,利用约收分数对缺少实收分数的年份进行插补,获得较为完整的清代直隶分府秋收分数数据集。据此重建的直隶逐年秋收分数序列具有显著的阶段变化特征,前半段(1736—1823)由乾隆朝的“高产、稳产”过渡到嘉庆朝的剧烈波动,能够较为准确地反映收成随灾害频次和强度变化而发生的波动;后半段(1824—1911)秋收分数均值与波动性同时下降,可以体现晚清收成转差的大趋势,但难以准确刻画极端灾害年份的大幅减产。收成奏报数据可靠性的下降,与晚清直隶将未受灾与受灾区域分别统计收成的做法有关,反映出晚清收成奏报制度的废弛。
The official archives concerning the autumn grain harvest in Zhili Province during the Qing Dynasty consist of Zouzhe(memorials presented directly to Emperor)and Tiben(reports submitted to Hubu,the Ministry of Revenue).As shown by 248 official archives,the completeness rate of autumn harvest data at the county level from 1736 to 1911 is 62.1%,while at the prefecture level it is 94.9%.This paper creates a relatively complete data set of annual autumn harvest grades at the prefecture level in Zhili Province based on the statistical relationship between rough harvest grades and actual harvest grades in the archives,allowing missing actual harvest data to be filled in with modified rough harvest data.A series of annual autumn harvest grades with significant stage-change characteristics in Zhili Province from 1736 to 1911 would be reconstructed.In the first stage(1736-1823),there was a transition from the"high and stable yield"of the Qianlong Reign to significant fluctuation during the Jiaqing Reign,which accurately reflects the harvest fluctuation driven by changes in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters.In the second stage(1824-1911),both the mean value and volatility of autumn harvest grades declined,which reflects the general trend of the harvest deterioration in the late Qing Dynasty.However,it is difficult to accurately describe the largescale reduction in harvests during extreme disaster years.The decline in the reliability of the official archives about autumn harvest might be related to the practice of separately reporting harvests in disaster affected and unaffected areas in Zhili Province during the late Qing Dynasty,reflecting the erosion of the harvest reporting system.
作者
萧凌波
Xiao Lingbo(Institute of Qing History,Renmin University of China,100872)
出处
《中国历史地理论丛》
北大核心
2025年第2期5-16,共12页
Journal of Chinese Historical Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国近代灾害治理的历史经验与知识体系研究”(23&ZD254)。
关键词
清代直隶
秋收分数
奏报
水旱灾害
Zhili Province in the Qing Dynasty
Autumn harvest grade
Memorials
Flood and drought
作者简介
萧凌波(1982-),男,地理学博士,副教授,主要研究方向为历史自然地理、灾害史。
