因地致困:土地财政依赖是否加剧地方政府隐性债务扩张

Developmental Deficits Under Land Fiscal Regimes:Does Land Fiscal Dependence Exacerbate Expansion of Local Government Implicit Debt

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摘要厘清地方政府财政行为与债务风险的动态关系是防范化解地方债务风险的关键。构建包含土地财政依赖、隐性债务扩张、财政赤字与金融机构风险的动态面板系统,揭示财政行为与地方政府隐性债务扩张的动态关联机制。研究发现:土地财政依赖短期内会抑制隐性债务扩张,但预算约束软化会削弱其缓释效果;财政赤字与隐性债务存在双向反馈效应,金融系统脆弱性可通过推升财政压力间接提升债务风险;房地产市场波动会通过调节土地财政收入影响政策效果;预算软约束下,赤字债务化与土地财政工具化是形成隐性债务区域性差异的主要原因。 Clarifying the dynamic relationship between local governments'fiscal behaviors and debt risks is key to preventing and mitigating local debt risks.This paper constructed a dynamic panel system incorporating land fiscal dependence,implicit debt expansion,fiscal deficits,and financial institution risk,thereby uncovering the dynamic interplay between fiscal behaviors and the expansion of local government implicit debt.The study found that while land fiscal dependence initially suppressed implicit debt expansion in the short term,its mitigating effect weakened as budget constraints softened.Additionally,fiscal deficits and implicit debt exhibited a bidirectional feedback effect,while financial system with vulnerability indirectly exacerbated debt risks by raising fiscal pressure.Furthermore,fluctuations in the real estate market influenced policy effectiveness by altering land fiscal revenue.Under soft budget constraints,debt debtification and the instrumental use of land fiscal policies were the primary drivers of regional differences in implicit debt risks.

作者罗鉴刘敏方俊 LUO Jian;LIU Min;FANG Jun(School of Economics and Management,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013;School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区华东交通大学经济管理学院南昌大学经济管理学院

出处《山西财经大学学报》北大核心 2025年第5期54-67,共14页 Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基金国家社科基金项目(24CTJ016,24&ZD078) 江西省哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目(23ZXSKJD16) 江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(JD23028)。

关键词土地财政依赖地方政府债务隐性债务风险财政压力财政赤字金融机构风险房地产市场预算软约束 land fiscal dependence local government debt implicit debt risk fiscal pressure fiscal deficit financial institution risk real estate market soft budget constraint

分类号 F812.5 [经济管理—财政学] F301 [经济管理—产业经济]

作者简介罗鉴(1990-),男,江西泰和人,华东交通大学经济管理学院副教授,经济学博士,主要研究方向是土地财政、国民经济核算;刘敏(1982-),女,江西南昌人,南昌大学经济管理学院教授,经济学博士,博士生导师,主要研究方向是地方债务风险;方俊(1997-),男,江西赣州人,南昌大学经济管理学院博士研究生,主要研究方向是地方债务风险。