摘要
为薄壳山核桃在江西省引种开发提供理论基础,基于北美薄壳山核桃分布数据、环境气候数据和地形数据,采用最大熵模型,利用经筛选得到的167个薄壳山核桃有效分布点和11个环境变量,模拟了薄壳山核桃当前及未来3种气候情景下在江西的潜在适生区分布及其变化,并筛选出主导环境因子。结果表明:最大熵模型模拟预测精度很高;薄壳山核桃适生区主要受降水和气温影响,主导环境因子为最干月降水量、最暖季平均气温、气温的季节性、昼夜温差月均值和最湿月降水量,适宜阈值范围分别为30~520 mm、25~46℃、750~2600、10.4~21.9℃和90~195 mm;江西省大部分地区为薄壳山核桃的适生区,适生区主要分布于海拔500 m以下的丘陵、平原和盆地;在未来3种气候情景下,江西省大部分地区仍为薄壳山核桃的适生区,适生区总面积较当前扩大,非适生区面积减少;在同一气候情景下,随年代增加,非适生区面积增加;随碳排放程度增加,潜在高适生区有向江西省西部和南部移动的趋势。薄壳山核桃在江西省有较广泛的适生性,具有引种栽培推广潜力。
To provide theoretical basis for the introduction and development of pecan(Carya illinoinensis(Wangenh.) K.Koch) in Jiangxi Province,based on North American distribution data,environmental and climate data,and terrain data,the maximum entropy(MaxEnt) model was used to simulate the suitable distribution areas of pecan in Jiangxi Province under the current climatic conditions and to predict changes under three climate scenarios using 167 effective distribution points and 11 environmental factors.The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of pecan in Jiangxi Province were analyzed.Results showed that the MaxEnt model had a high accuracy in predicting the suitable distribution areas of pecan,with the AUC value above 0.989.The suitable distribution areas were mainly affected by precipitation and temperature,with the precipitation of driest month(bio14),the mean temperature of warmest quarter(bio10),temperature seasonality(bio4),mean diurnal range(bio2),and the precipitation of wettest month(bio13) being the dominant ones.When the precipitation of driest month was 30-520 mm,the mean temperature of warmest quarter was 25-46 ℃,the temperature seasonality was 750-2600,the mean diurnal range was 10.4-21.9 ℃,and the precipitation of wettest month was 90-195 mm,they were beneficial for the growth of pecan.Under the current climatic conditions,most areas in Jiangxi Province are suitable for the growth of pecan.The potential highly suitable distribution areas and the potential suitable distribution areas accounted for 4.4% and 69.4% of the total area of Jiangxi Province,respectively.The suitable distribution areas were mainly distributed in hills,plains,and basins below an altitude of 500 m.Under the three climatic conditions,most areas of Jiangxi Province will still be suitable for growth of pecan,and the total suitable distribution areas will expand.Under the same climate scenario in the future,as time increases,the non-suitable areas will increase.As carbon emissions increase,potential highly suitable areas would move towards the western and southern regions of Jiangxi Province.Therefore,pecans have a wide range of adaptability,with the potential for introduction,cultivation,and promotion in Jiangxi Province.
作者
李春晖
汪建军
蔡哲
杨爱萍
LI Chunhui;WANG Jianjun;CAI Zhe;YANG Aiping(Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorological Center,Nanchang 330096,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
北大核心
2025年第5期1644-1652,共9页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J057)
江西省防灾减灾工程技术研究中心专项(JX2023Z01)
江西省气象科技青年人才培养项目(JX2023Q03)资助。
作者简介
李春晖,女,1997年生,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为农业气象,E-mail:674139482@qq.com;通信作者:杨爱萍,E-mail:yap1114@163.com。
