摘要
随着经济的高速发展,人口的急剧增长,人类对环境的破坏越来越大,各类污染物的排放,严重威胁了地区生态安全.首先基于2010年京津冀土地利用数据,利用PLUS模型对2020年土地利用数据进行模拟,将模拟结果与真实数据进行精度验证,模拟得到了SSP119(可持续发展情景)、SSP245(自然发展情景)和SSP585(经济发展情景)发展情景下的2030~2050年土地利用数据.然后基于InVEST模型测算了京津冀地区历史时期2000~2020年和未来时期SSP119、SSP245和SSP585情景下2030~2050年的氮素污染时空变化情况.结果发现,2000年、2010年和2020年京津冀地区氮负荷总值为4.13万、4.1万和4.09万t,2000~2020年京津冀地区氮负荷总值呈下降趋势.与2020年相比,SSP119情景2050年京津冀地区氮负荷总值增加了0.2万t,SSP245情景2050年京津冀地区氮负荷总值增加了0.32万t,SSP585情景2050年京津冀地区氮负荷总值减少了0.03万t.相较于SSP119和SSP245情景而言,SSP585发展更有利于京津冀地区氮素污染的减少.
With the rapid development of the economy and rapid population growth,the destruction of the environment by humans is growing,and the discharge of various pollutants has seriously threatened the regional ecological security.First,based on the 2010 Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei land use data,the PLUS model was used to simulate the 2020 land use data and the accuracy of the simulation results was verified with the real data.The land use data of 2030-2050 under the sustainable development scenario(SSP119),natural development scenario(SSP245),and economic development scenario(SSP585)were simulated.Then,based on the InVEST model,the spatio-temporal changes of nitrogen pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from 2000 to 2020 and in the future under the SSP119,SSP245,and SSP585 scenarios from 2030 to 2050 were estimated.The results showed that the total nitrogen loads in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region were 41300,41000,and 40900 tons in 2000,2010,and 2020,respectively and the total nitrogen load in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region showed a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2020.Compared with that in 2020,the total nitrogen load in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in 2050 under the SSP119 scenario increased by 2000 tons,the total nitrogen load in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in 2050 under the SSP245 scenario increased by 3200 tons,and the total nitrogen load in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in 2050 under the SSP585 scenario decreased by 300 tons.Compared with the SSP245 and SSP119 scenarios,the development of SSP585 was more conducive to the reduction of nitrogen pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.
作者
岳帅均
姬广兴
黄珺嫦
程明月
耿健茜
郭宇龙
陈伟强
YUE Shuai-jun;JI Guang-xing;HUANG Jun-chang;CHENG Ming-yue;GENG Jian-xi;GUO Yu-long;CHEN Wei-qiang(Henan Engineering Research Center of Land Consolidation and Ecological Restoration,College of Resources and Environment,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《环境科学》
北大核心
2025年第5期2767-2782,共16页
Environmental Science
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700900)
河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2023-ZZJH-189)。
作者简介
岳帅均(1997-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为土地利用模拟和生态污染,E-mail:yueshuaijun@stu.henau.edu.cn;通信作者:姬广兴,E-mail:guangxingji@henau.edu.cn。
