摘要
作为全球最大的木材进口国和消费国,中国木材供求关系的稳定对国内经济安全与全球市场格局具有深远影响。文章基于中国22个省份2005—2022年的面板数据,构建空间面板联立方程模型,旨在揭示木材供给、需求与价格之间的内生互动机制及其空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)地理邻近省份的木材供给呈现显著正向协同效应(系数0.7060),而经济关联省份因资源竞争导致需求负向溢出(系数-0.6960);(2)木材价格对需求的抑制作用(-0.9762)强于对供给的促进作用(0.2826),且邻近省份价格上涨通过资源外流抑制本地供给(价格空间项系数-0.5840);(3)南方林区因产业集聚效应,供需互动显著(供给系数0.9490),市场化程度高;东北林区受政策刚性限制(2015年禁伐),供给依赖进口(进口价格系数0.8600),市场调节能力弱;西南林区加工基础薄弱,需技术升级提升附加值。文章通过整合地理邻近性与经济关联性,首次量化了木材市场的区域协同与竞争效应,同时,探讨不同林区因资源禀赋、政策导向等差异导致的区域异质性,为优化资源配置与构建更具韧性的木材供需体系提供科学依据。文章提出区域协同发展、增强供应链韧性、差异化施策等政策启示。
As the world's largest importer and consumer of timber,the stability of China's timber supply and demand relationship has far-reaching implications for domestic economic security and the global market structure.Based on panel data from 22 provinces in China from 2005 to 2022,this paper constructed a spatial panel simultaneous equation model to reveal the endogenous interactive mechanisms between timber supply,demand,and prices,as well as their spatial spillover effects.The study found that:(1)Timber supply in geographically adjacent provinces exhibited a significant positive synergistic effect(coefficient 0.7060),while provinces with economic linkages experience negative demand spillovers due to resource competition(coefficient-0.6960).(2)The inhibitory effect of timber prices on demand(-0.9762)was stronger than its promotional effect on supply(0.2826),and price increased in adjacent provinces suppress local supply through resource outflows(spatial price coefficient-0.5840).(3)The southern forest regions had significant supply and demand interactions due to industrial agglomeration effects(supply coefficient 0.9490)and a high degree of marketization.In contrast,the northeastern forest regions,subject to rigid policy restrictions(logging ban in 2015),relied on imports for supply(import price coefficient 0.8600)and had weak market adjustment capabilities.The southwestern forest regions had a weak processing base and needed technological upgrades to increase added value.This paper,for the first time,integrated geographical proximity and economic linkages to quantify the regional cooperation and competition effects in the timber market.It also explored the regional heterogeneity caused by the differences in resource endowment and policy orientation in different forest regions,providing a scientific basis for optimizing resource allocation and building a more resilient timber supply and demand system.The paper proposed policy insights such as regional coordinated development,enhancing supply chain resilience and differentiated policy implementation.
作者
刘林
朱含露
孙莹
孙洪刚
LIU Lin;ZHU Hanu;SUN Ying;SUN Honggang(College of Economics and Management,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018;Research Institute of Subtropical Forestry,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Hangzhou 311400)
出处
《林业经济》
2024年第11期33-46,共14页
Forestry Economics
基金
国家重点研发计划“木质复合材用南方储备林高效培育技术”(2024YFD2201202)。
关键词
木材供给
木材需求
木材价格
空间面板联立方程
timber supply
timber demand
timber price
simultaneous equations of spatial panels
作者简介
刘林,研究方向为林业可持续发展、林产品贸易。
