摘要
政府引导基金肩负推动产业转型升级的重任,是地方政府支持经济动能转换的重要工具。本文基于2014-2019年地级市政府引导基金数据和资本错配指数,实证分析了政府引导基金改善资本错配的效应与机制。基准回归结果表明,在短期,政府引导基金加剧资本错配;在长期,政府引导基金改善资本错配。该结论在经过内生性检验和稳健性检验后仍然成立。异质性分析结果表明,政府引导基金改善资本错配的效应在东部地区、营商环境水平较高的地区和数字经济发展水平较高的地区更显著。机制检验结果表明,政府引导基金通过促进科技创新和引导绿色投资改善资本错配。进一步分析发现,政府引导基金能够推动产业结构升级、促进新质生产力发展。本文的研究结论为客观理解政府引导基金的作用提供了经验证据。
The decline in the efficiency of resource allocation is a challenge to slow economic growth at the current stage,which reflects the deep‑seated institutional contradictions.It is necessary to go beyond the conventional“government vs market”binary opposition thinking,guide technological innovation through institutional innovation,and realize the transformation of resource allocation from“scale expansion”to“quality improvement”.Government‑guided fund is a new choice for orderly competition.Existing studies mainly analyze it from the perspectives of industrial agglomeration,digital finance,establishment of free trade zones,digitization and intelligent analysis of resource misallocation,etc.,but they do not pay attention to the potential of government‑guided fund to improve resource misallocation and the significance of institutional innovation by the government to solve“market failure”and“government failure”.Based on the data of prefecture‑level government‑guided fund from 2014 to 2019,this paper analyzes the effect of government‑guided fund on capital misallocation.The empirical study reveals that the government‑guided fund increases capital misallocation in the short term and improves capital misallocation in the long term,and this conclusion is still valid after endogeneity treatment and robustness tests.Given the serious imbalance in China’s economic development,this paper conducts grouping regression according to region,business environment,and digital economy development.The heterogeneity analysis results show that better geographical location,business environment,and digital development can enhance the resource allocation effect of government‑guided fund.The mechanism test shows that the government‑guided fund guides social capital to carry out innovation,entrepreneurship,and green investment.Although it has a disturbance to the market in the short term,it improves the efficiency of the capital allocation in the long run,producing a crowding effect.Further analysis shows that the promotion of industrial structure upgrading in the two aspects of industrial upgrading and industrial rationalization,through cultivating and gathering core elements that can promote innovation,entrepreneurship,and industrial structure upgrading,promotes the development of new quality productive forces.This paper has the following policy implications.It determines the goal and positioning of the government‑guided fund according to local conditions,explores the positive interaction between the government and the market mechanism,and utilizes big data to monitor the operational risks of the invested enterprises based on establishing a dynamic risk early warning system,focusing on long‑term social benefit assessment,and avoiding excessive accountability.It is necessary to balance the relationship between patience and fault tolerance with effective incentive mechanisms and institutions to promote original innovation and the development of emerging industries.
作者
周波
孔欣悦
刘晶
ZHOU Bo;KONG Xinyue;LIU Jing(School of Finance and Taxation,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025,China)
出处
《财经问题研究》
北大核心
2025年第5期80-92,共13页
Research On Financial and Economic Issues
基金
辽宁省教育厅重点项目“政府间环保事权配置与环境治理绩效:经济职能与公共事务治理职能协调框架”(LJ112410173049)
国家社会科学基金青年项目“经济高质量发展背景下‘减税降费’政策的效果评估研究”(20CJY059)
辽宁省教育厅高校基本科研项目(LJ212410173065)。
关键词
政府引导基金
资本错配
科技创新
绿色投资
产业结构
新质生产力
government-guided fund
capital misallocation
technological innovation
green investment
industrial structure
new quality productive forces
作者简介
周波(1977-),男,内蒙古赤峰人,教授,博士,博士生导师,主要从事财政理论与财政政策研究。E-mail:yourab@163.com;孔欣悦(1994-),女,吉林白山人,博士研究生,主要从事财政学研究。E-mail:kongxinyue111@163.com;刘晶(1979-),女,安徽淮南人,博士研究生,主要从事财政理论与财政政策研究。E-mail:13909636457@126.com。
