摘要
南水北调东线一期工程北延应急供水工程2022—2023年度首次经历冰期输水考验,圆满完成了输水任务。然而目前针对北延工程冰期输水模型的研究极少。本文结合北延工程冰期输水特点,尝试提出冰情预测模型,通过输入热力学、水动力学等参数模拟冰情形成与演进过程。模型采用单因子影响分析、共线性冗余分析、归一化与建立评估矩阵、熵权法等方法,针对北延工程冰期输水多因子耦合特点,构建基于熵权法的冰情预测模型,通过热力学与水动力学参数协同分析,量化冰盖形成阈值。模型以0.6、0.5、0.4为冰盖、不连续冰盖及岸冰的指示数阈值,预测准确率达85%,可为冰期输水调度提供动态预警。结果显示,各断面冰情指数分布可以与实际冰情基本吻合,基于冰情预测模型可以基本判断冰盖形成状态,可为北延工程冰期输水调度运行管理提供参考。
The North Extension Emergency Water Supply Project of Phase I of Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion underwent its first ice period water conveyance test during the 2022-2023 period and successfully completed the water conveyance task.However,there has been limited research on ice period water conveyance models for the North Extension project.This paper addresses the characteristics of ice period water conveyance in the North Extension project and proposes an ice condition prediction model.The model simulates the formation and evolution of ice conditions by inputting thermodynamic and hydrodynamic parameters.Methods such as single-factor influence analysis,collinearity redundancy analysis,normalization,evaluation matrix construction,and the entropy weight method are used to build an ice condition prediction model based on the entropy weight method.The model quantifies the threshold for ice cover formation through the collaborative analysis of thermodynamic and hydrodynamic parameters.The thresholds of 0.6,0.5,and 0.4 are set to indicate ice cover,discontinuous ice cover,and shore ice,respectively,with a prediction accuracy of 85%.The model provides dynamic early warning for ice period water conveyance scheduling.Results show that the distribution of ice condition index at various sections can closely match the actual ice conditions,and the ice condition prediction model can effectively determine the status of ice cover formation.This model can offer valuable reference for ice period water conveyance scheduling and operational management of the North Extension project.
作者
李鑫
侯煜
于茜
LI Xin;HOU Yu;YU Qian(China South-to-North Water Diversion Eastern Route Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100070,China)
出处
《水利建设与管理》
2025年第4期12-19,共8页
Water Conservancy Construction and Management
基金
国家重点研发计划重点专项“南水北调东线工程多水源均衡配置与输水智能调控技术”。
关键词
南水北调东线
北延工程
冰期输水
冰情预测模型
熵权法
Eastern Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion
North Extension Project
ice period water conveyance
ice condition prediction model
entropy weight method
作者简介
李鑫(1995-),男,硕士,工程师,主要从事南水北调东线调度运行管理工作。
