摘要
针对南水北调中线工程运行以来汉江中下游径流量大幅减少,水资源供需矛盾突出的问题,基于水资源配置空间均衡准则,以生活、工业、农业3个用水部门水量分配满意度最大为目标函数,建立了水资源配置稳健博弈模型,分析了中线工程调水前后各主体水量分配满意度变化,并将稳健博弈模型与多目标优化模型的结果进行了对比。结果表明:在不确定性条件下,稳健博弈模型通过降低目标值来提高可靠性,得到的稳健均衡解劣于纳什均衡解;南水北调中线工程调水后,用水部门整体水量分配满意度下降幅度为9.4%,生活、工业、农业用水部门满意度分别下降4.9%、10.4%、12.9%;需水量最大的农业用水部门水量分配满意度目标值对稳健参数的变化最为敏感。
In response to the significant reduction in runoff in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River and the prominent issue of water supply-demand imbalance since the operation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,a robust game model for water resources allocation was established based on the spatial equilibrium criterion of water resources distribution,with maximization of the satisfaction degree of water allocation in three water consumption sectors,including domestic,industrial,and agricultural water consumption sectors,used as objective functions.The model was applied to analyze the changes in the satisfaction degree of water allocation among different sectors before and after the operation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,and the results were compared with those of the multi-objective optimization model.The results indicate that under uncertain condition,the robust game model enhances reliability by decreasing objective values,and the obtained robust equilibrium solutions are inferior to the Nash equilibrium solutions.After the operation of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,the overall water allocation satisfaction degree among different water consumption sectors decreased by 9.4%,with the domestic,industrial,and agricultural sectors experiencing decreases of 4.9%,10.4%,and 12.9%,respectively.The agricultural water consumption sector that has the highest water demand shows the greatest sensitivity to changes in the robust parameter in terms of the water allocation satisfaction degree.
作者
韩琦
付湘
张翔
赵小丹
HAN Qi;FU Xiang;ZHANG Xiang;ZHAO Xiaodan(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《水资源保护》
北大核心
2025年第2期193-199,共7页
Water Resources Protection
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(U21A2002)
国家重点研发计划重点专项(2022YFC3202300)。
关键词
水资源配置
稳健博弈优化
南水北调中线工程
汉江中下游
water resources allocation
robust game optimization
the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project
middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River
作者简介
韩琦(2000-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:hanqi0901@163.com;通信作者:付湘(1971-),女,教授,博士,主要从事水文水资源研究。E-mail:xfu@whu.edu.cn。
