摘要
探讨气候变暖背景下,青海湖水位变化的成因及未来变化趋势。基于1960—2023年的气象观测数据,分析气候变暖对青海湖流域蒸发量、径流量、降水量以及土壤最大冻结深度等关键因素的影响。并通过Bigaussian非线性拟合,预测2025—2035年青海湖的水位变化趋势。研究发现:随着气候变暖,青海湖附近的土壤蒸发量显著增加,且其受气候变暖的影响最为显著(Pearson相关性系数为0.860);同时,径流量和降水量也呈现缓慢上升趋势,而土壤最大冻结深度则呈下降趋势。就目前而言,蒸发量所消耗的湖水量小于径流量、降雨量及冻土融化所注入的湖水总量,导致青海湖水位出现持续上升现象。通过Bigaussian非线性拟合,预测2025—2035年青海湖的水位将保持缓慢上涨,2035年水位将达到3198.133 m。研究成果为保证青藏铁路环湖路段列车的安全运营提供了科学依据。
The causes and future trends of water level variations in Qinghai Lake against the backdrop of climate warming was discussed.Drawing upon meteorological observation data spanning from 1960 to 2023,the impacts of climate warming on key factors within the Qinghai Lake basin was analyzed,including evaporation,runoff,precipitation,and maximum soil frost depth.Employing Bigaussian nonlinear fitting,the water level trends of Qinghai Lake from 2025 to 2035 is predicted.Key findings reveal that as climate warming intensifies,the soil evaporation near Qinghai Lake has increased significantly,and it is the most significantly affected by climate warming(with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.860).Meanwhile,both runoff and precipitation have shown a slow upward trend,while the maximum soil freezing depth has declined.For now,the volume of water consumed by evaporation is less than the total volume of water injected into Qinghai Lake by runoff,precipitation,and permafrost melting.Consequently,this has led to a continuous rise in the water level of Qinghai Lake.Through Bigaussian nonlinear fitting,it is predicted that the water level of Qinghai Lake will continue to rise slowly from 2025 to 2035,reaching 3198.133 meters by 2035.This research provides a scientific basis for ensuring the safe operation of trains on the Qinghai-Tibet Railway’s section surrounding the lake.
作者
张寿红
ZHANG Shouhong(Qinghai-Tibet Group Co.,Ltd,China Railway,Xining 810000,China)
出处
《科技和产业》
2025年第5期49-53,共5页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
中国铁路青藏集团有限公司科技研究开发计划(QZ2022-G07)。
作者简介
张寿红(1972-),女,安徽长丰人,高级工程师,研究方向为土木工程科技管理。
