摘要
钴作为新能源汽车电池的关键原材料,对实现低碳能源转型具有重要意义。厘清钴资源在中国社会经济系统中的循环演变规律,对优化资源管理与保障供应安全至关重要。本文基于全生命周期贸易关联视角,应用动态物质流分析方法,刻画了1988—2022年中国钴资源的物质代谢全景图,并揭示了各阶段流量与存量的演变规律。研究结果表明:(1)中国钴资源贸易呈现“上游进口高度依赖刚果(金)、下游出口多元化、贸易总量持续增长”的特征;(2)中国钴产业链资源利用效率较低,中上游生产过程损失钴资源19.3万t,约为本土终端产品消费的37%;(3)中国已经成为全球最大的精炼产品和终端产品生产中心,生产规模不断扩大,电动汽车电池逐步取代传统应用,成为拉动国内钴资源消费的主要驱动力。当前,我国上游钴原料对外依存度高达98%,钴资源的稳定供应可能成为“双碳”目标实现的关键挑战。鉴于此,本文建议通过加大国内增储上产、拓宽海外供应渠道,以及提升全生命周期各关键环节的综合利用效率,完善废弃含钴产品闭环管理系统,以增强中国钴资源的供应安全。同时,加快少钴或无钴锂离子电动汽车电池产品的转型升级,以降低钴资源供应中断给清洁能源转型带来的不确定性。
Cobalt is a critical raw material for new energy vehicle batteries and plays a vital role in the low-carbon energy transition.Understanding the whole life cycle evolution of cobalt resources within China’s socio-economic system is essential for optimizing resource management and ensuring supply security.This paper employs dynamic material flow analysis from a trade association perspective to map the material metabolism of China’s cobalt resources between 1988 and 2022,revealing flow and stock dynamics at each life cycle stage.The findings are as follows:①China’s cobalt trade exhibits a high dependency on imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC)upstream,diversified downstream exports,and steadily growing trade volumes;②the cobalt industry chain shows low resource utilization efficiency,with losses of 193000 tons during midstream and upstream production,approximately 37%of domestic end products consumption;③China has become the world’s largest production center for refined cobalt and end products,with expanding production scales.Electric vehicle batteries are gradually supplanting traditional applications,driving domestic cobalt consumption.Currently,China’s reliance on imported cobalt raw materials stands at 98%,ensuring a stable cobalt supply poses significant challenges to achieve the“dual carbon”goals.To address this,this paper recommends increasing domestic reserves and production,diversifying overseas supply channels,and enhancing the comprehensive utilization efficiency across the cobalt life cycle.Additionally,it advocates for the establishment of a closed-loop management system for cobalt-containing waste products to strengthen the supply security of China’s cobalt resources.Furthermore,accelerating the development of low-cobalt or cobalt-free lithium-ion batteries is critical to mitigating the risks associated with cobalt supply disruptions in the clean energy transition.
作者
徐大兴
代涛
刘立涛
杜力普
闫晶晶
韩中奎
XU Daxing;DAI Tao;LIU Litao;DU Lipu;YAN Jingjing;HAN Zhongkui(Research Center for Strategy of Global Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;School of Earth Sciences and Resources,China University of Geosciences(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2025年第2期222-231,共10页
China Mining Magazine
基金
国家重点研发计划项目课题“全球战略性矿产大数据平台和预警与决策支持技术”资助(编号:2021YFC2901801)
国家自然科学基金项目“基于全生命周期的钴资源多尺度代谢、供需平衡与保障路径优化”资助(编号:52270191)
国家自然科学基金项目“战略性稀缺金属资源全产业链多尺度风险评估与安全保障策略”资助(编号:72334001)。
关键词
钴资源
全生命周期
贸易关联
动态物质流分析
钴供应安全
cobalt resource
whole life cycle
trade link
dynamic material flow analysis
cobalt supply security
作者简介
第一作者:徐大兴(1998-),男,汉族,辽宁大连人,博士研究生,主要从事金属物质流和资源环境经济等方面的研究工作,E-mail:xudaxing815@163.com;通讯作者:代涛(1980-),男,汉族,河南周口人,博士,研究员,主要从事能源资源战略、金属资源物质流和矿产资源大数据等方面的研究,E-mail:eagledai@126.com。
