摘要
实现公路工程建设可靠性成为交通发展的重要导向。为分析高速公路全过程勘察设计风险管理过程中的关键影响因素,量化具体项目风险,从行业治理、建设单位管理、设计单位内控、设计咨询单位等多参与主体出发,提出多层级多维度风险评价指标体系,构建融合AHP、模糊评价和云模型的高速公路勘察设计风险评估模型,并对模型进行案例应用,进一步提出高速公路勘察设计风险防控对策。研究结果表明:影响高速公路勘察设计风险的主要因素是建设单位管理因素,其次是设计单位内控和咨询单位因素;行业治理应结合项目实际情况适时动态调整勘察设计周期和费用,该指标权重值较高;对于项目建设单位,明确勘察设计成果评价标准、并安排专业技术人员跟踪把控、成立牵头管理部门这3个指标的权重值依次降低,权重和占比达到近80%;内控管理办法是设计单位风险管理的重要指标,权重占比近70%;从第三方咨询单位来看,实现全过程咨询管理对于风险管理较重要。所构建的风险评估量化模型解决了风险评估中缺乏客观数据的问题,并对模糊评价结果判定规则进行改进完善,可为相关项目风险评估提供可借鉴的理论依据和方法支撑,对于促进勘察设计行业高质量发展具有重要应用价值。
To realize the reliability of highway construction has become an important direction of traffic development.In order to analyze the key influencing factors in the whole process of highway survey and design risk management and quantify the specific project risk,the multi-level and multi-dimensional risk evaluation index system is proposed from the perspective of multiple participants such as industry governance,construction companies'management,design company's internal control and design consulting company.The risk assessment model of highway survey and design,which integrates AHP,fuzzy evaluation and cloud model,is constructed,and the model is applied to project practice,and the risk prevention and control countermeasures are further proposed.The results show that the main factors affecting the risk of highway survey and design are the management factors of the construction contractor,followed by the factors of the design company's internal control and consulting company.Industry governance should dynamically adjust the survey and design period and cost according to the actual situation of the project.For project construction contractors,the weight value of the three indicators of clarifying the evaluation criteria for survey and design results,arranging professional and technical personnel to track and control,and setting up a leading management department are reduced successively,with the weight and proportion reaching nearly 80%.The internal control management method is an important index of risk management in the design organization,and its weight accounts for nearly 70%.From the perspective of third-party consulting units,the realization of whole-process consulting management is more important for risk management.The constructed quantitative risk assessment model solves the problem of lack of objective data in risk assessment,and improves the judgment rules of fuzzy evaluation results,which can provide theoretical basis and method support for reference for risk assessment of related projects,and has important application value for promoting high-quality development of survey and design industry.
作者
雷鸣
王元庆
吴玲
LEI Ming;WANG Yuan-qing;WU Ling(Qinghua Expressway Management Office of Guangzhou Transportation Investment Group Co.Ltd.,Qingyuan 511520,China;School of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 71o06l,China;CCCCFirstHighwayConsultants Co.Ltd.,Xi'an 710065,China;School of Vehicle Engineering,Xi'an Aeronautical Institute,Xi'an 710077,China)
出处
《公路》
北大核心
2025年第2期256-262,共7页
Highway
基金
陕西省科技厅自然科学基础研究计划项目,项目编号2024JC-YBMS-301
陕西省教育厅科学研究计划项目,项目编号23JK0500
陕西省博士后科研项目,项目编号2023BSHGZZHQYXMZZ40。
关键词
公路工程
勘察设计
风险评估
云模型
AHP
highway engineering
survey and design
risk assessment
cloud model
AHP
