摘要
基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论与中介效应理论,选用2006—2021年陕西省经济与能源数据,分析和研究碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性并探究能源消费于经济增长与碳排放的中介效应。结果显示,陕西省碳排放存在环境库兹涅茨曲线,人均GDP为76992.75元时,陕西省碳排放达到拐点;相较于二次曲线方程和三次曲线方程呈现出更好的拟合优度(R^(2)=0.977),且大致为“N”型库兹涅茨曲线。不同能源燃烧碳排放与经济增长的环境库兹涅茨曲线显著性存在明显差异,其中原煤燃烧碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线较为显著。经济增长通过能源消费影响碳排放的中介效应显著,但直接效应与中介效应相反。经济增长能够直接抑制碳排放的增加,但经济增长会通过能源消费间接促进碳排放增长,且能源消费的促进作用遮掩了经济增长对碳排放的抑制作用。因此,未来陕西省碳达峰目标的顺利实现,必须以经济增长、低碳发展和改善能源消费情况为重点,探索具体可行的减排路径。
Based on theory of the environmental Kuznets curve and the theory of mediation effect,this study selects economic and energy data from Shaanxi province from 2006 to 2021 to analyze the existence of the carbon emission environmental Kuznets curve and explore the mediating effect of energy consumption on economic growth and carbon emissions.The results show that an environmental Kuznets curve for carbon emissions exists in Shaanxi province,and a turning point occurs when the per capita GDP is 76,992.75 yuan;Compared to the quadratic and cubic curve equations,it shows better fitting goodness(R^(2)=0.977)and is roughly an“N-shaped”Kuznets curve.There are significant differences in the environmental Kuznets curve between carbon emissions from different types of energy combustion and economic growth,with coal combustion showing a more prominent environmental Kuznets curve.The mediation effect of economic growth on carbon emissions through energy consumption is significant,but the direct effect is opposite to the mediation effect.Economic growth can directly suppress the increase of carbon emissions,but it indirectly promotes the carbon emissions through energy consumption,which overshadows the suppressive effect of economic growth on emissions.Therefore,achieving the carbon peak target in Shaanxi province will require a focus on economic growth,low-carbon development,improved energy consumption,
作者
黄凌皓
侯珂
HUANG Linghao;HOU Ke(Xi'an Shiyou University,710065,Xi'an,PRC)
出处
《江西科学》
2025年第1期116-125,共10页
Jiangxi Science
基金
西安市科技计划项目(23RKYJ0018)。
关键词
环境库兹涅茨曲线
中介效应
能源强度
environmental Kuznets curve
mediation effect
energy intensity
作者简介
黄凌皓(2001-),男,硕士研究生,研究方向为节能低碳、大数据与信息管理;通信作者:侯珂(1977-),男,博士,副教授,主要从事智慧油田、大数据管理方面的研究。E-mail:kehou@188.com。
