摘要
尽管新能源汽车产业在全球市场迅速扩张,但其市场渗透率仍低于内燃机汽车,尤其在极端温度环境下,新能源汽车面临充电缓慢、续航里程降低和安全性差等挑战,严重阻碍了其推广与应用。本文利用2010-2020年城市层面的季度数据,首次考察了气温波动对新能源汽车消费的影响。研究发现,气温变化对新能源汽车消费具有显著影响,且呈现倒U型趋势。过高和过低的气温均降低了新能源汽车消费,但低温的负面影响更大。当交易前气温偏离最佳气温(16.60°C)时,购买概率降低。在16.60°C基础上,每增加1°C和降低1°C,新能源汽车销量分别减少1881台和5302台,分别占企业收入的4.821亿元和1358.3亿元。气温在14°C—18°C之间时,对消费的积极影响最大,增幅为55.6%;而气温低于6°C时,消极影响最大,降幅为136.6%。心理机制分析表明,投射偏差机制在非典型天气条件下导致二手新能源汽车库存增加,而注意力机制显示,极端气温下消费者更关注性能,适宜气温下则更关注低碳和外观特征。两种机制均表明气温偏离最佳范围会减少消费,但影响路径不同:投射偏差在天气良好时增加购买,注意力效应在天气恶劣时提高购买意愿。本文为新能源汽车产业的可持续发展提供了新的视角和微观证据,并为企业将自然环境因素纳入商业决策提供了参考。
Despite the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle(NEV)industry in the global market,the market penetration rate of NEVs is still relatively low compared with that of internal combustion engine vehicles.Especially in extreme temperature environments,NEVs face challenges such as slow charging,significantly reduced range,and poor safety,which seriously impede the promotion and application of NEVs.This paper examines for the first time the impact of temperature fluctuations on the consumption of NEVs over the period 2010-2020 using quarterly data at the city level.It is found that temperature changes have a significant impact on the consumption of NEVs.It is worth noting that the consumption of NEVs shows an inverted U-shaped trend as the temperature changes.Both too high and too low temperatures reduce the consumption of NEVs,but the negative impact of low temperatures is greater.Estimates in this paper show that the probability of purchasing a NEV decreases when the pre-trade temperature deviates from the optimal temperature for NEVs(16.60℃).On the basis of 16.60℃,for every 1℃increase and 1℃decrease,the NEV’s will decrease by 1881 and 5302 units,respectively(accounting for$482.1 million and$135.83 billion of the NEV companies’revenues,respectively).Temperatures between 14℃and 18℃have the greatest positive impact on the consumption of NEVs(the most appropriate range),with an increase of 55.6%.Compared to this appropriate temperature range,temperature has the greatest negative impact on NEV consumption when the temperature is below 6℃,with a decrease of 136.6%.The results of the psychological mechanisms show that the projection bias mechanism indicates an increase in the inventory of used NEVs under atypical weather conditions,showing consumers’response to temperature changes.The attention mechanism,on the other hand,shows that consumers pay more attention to the performance of NEVs when the temperature is extreme,while they pay more attention to low-carbon and appearance features when the temperature is appropriate.Both mechanisms suggest that temperature deviations from the optimal range reduce NEV consumption,but the paths of their effects are different,with the projection bias increasing purchases mainly when the absolute weather is good,while the attention effect raises willingness to buy when the weather is unusually bad.This paper incorporates the potential impacts of external weather conditions into the empirical analysis framework,which provides new perspectives and micro-evidence for the sustainable development of the NEV industry,and it helps NEV companies to incorporate the potential impacts of the surrounding natural environment into their business decisions.
作者
赵小磊
李雪梅
XIAOLEI ZHAO;XUEMEI LI(Beijing jiaotong University;Chongqing University)
出处
《产业经济评论》
2025年第1期49-71,共23页
Review of Industrial Economics
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“新能源汽车产业政策对碳排放的影响研究”(批准号:2024YJS064)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于旅客出行偏好的客运通道内不同客运方式分担率研究”(批准号:51778047)的阶段性成果。
关键词
气温约束
新能源汽车
广义双重差分法
投射偏差
注意力
Temperature constraint
New energy vehicles
Generalized differential method
Projection bias
Attention
作者简介
赵小磊,北京交通大学经济管理学院,博士研究生;通信作者:李雪梅,重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,教授,博士生导师,E-mail:lixuemei@cqu.edu.cn。
