摘要
为精准量化企业生产者对企业未来的用电规划,文章致力于研究报装容量变化对电量的影响时长与影响程度,并定义报装影响生命周期,通过时间序列算法、用户分群、logistic回归等大数据方法,建立电力业扩影响电量预测模型。该模型打通了电力业扩报装到电量的映射链条,通过电力业扩报装活动预测电量变化,经过跟踪训练预测准确率已超90%,能够较好地诠释电力业扩报装与电量之间的关系,准确预测业扩报装影响电量发展趋势,映射行业景气情况。
To accurately quantify the future electricity consumption planning of enterprises and producers,this paper focuses on the duration and degree of impact of expanding capacity changes on electricity sales,defines the impact life cycle of expansion,and establishes a contributing electricity prediction model through big data methods such as ARIMA,X-12 seasonal adjustment,user clustering and logistic regression.The model links the mapping chain from power business expansion to electric power consumption and predicts the change of electric power consumption through electricity installation.After tracking and training,the model's prediction accuracy has exceeded 90%,which better interprets the relationship between power business expansion and electricity sales and accurately predict the development trend of power business expansion capacity and map the industry prosperity.
作者
赖国书
吴国耀
周昆
朱玲玲
兰智强
黄笑盈
茅琳玲
LAI Guoshu;WU Guoyao;ZHOU Kun;ZHU Lingling;LAN Zhiqiang;HUANG Xiaoying;MAO Linling(Marketing Service Center,State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350011,Fujian Province,China;State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350003,Fujian Province,China;Fujian Electric Power Supply Service Co.,Ltd.,Xiamen 361006,Fujian Province,China)
出处
《电力信息与通信技术》
2025年第2期38-43,共6页
Electric Power Information and Communication Technology
关键词
电力报装
大数据分析
电量预测
时间序列
power business expansion
big data analysis
electricity prediction
time series
作者简介
赖国书(1972),男,高级经济师,从事营销计量研究与管理、电力数据研究与应用工作;吴国耀(1973),男,高级工程师,从事电力供电服务工作;周昆(1975),男,高级经济师,从事营销管理工作;朱玲玲(1982),女,高级经济师,从事电力营销、电力市场相关工作;通信作者:兰智强(1990),男,工程师,从事供电服务、电力数据研究工作,175707242@qq.com;黄笑盈(1998),女,助理工程师,从事供电服务、营商环境研究工作;茅琳玲(1988),女,本科,从事业扩报装服务工作。
